SENATE
Kentucky
Republican businessman Nate Morris has fired the first salvo in the race to replace former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell from his native state of Kentucky, and the main target appears to be the retiring incumbent, himself.
Mr. Norris owns a business that, by his own description, is a “trash company,” and one of the largest in the country. He is running for office for the first time and putting seven figures behind a new introductory ad that literally “trashes” Sen. McConnell and his Republican primary opponents, US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron.
After what promises to now be a divisive Republican primary, the major general election question to answer is whether Gov. Andy Beshear (D) will run for the Senate. If so, this race becomes a toss-up. If not, the eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite. At this point, it appears Gov. Beshear is headed into the open 2028 presidential contest.
Michigan
A Normington Petts poll for the Mallory McMorrow campaign (6/12-16 but released this week; 700 MI likely general election voters; live interview & text) tested the Michigan US Senate race. The ballot test results find US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) leading former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) 47-45%, which is a virtual tie. Conversely, Mr. Rogers would top state Sen. McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) 48-44%.
Interestingly, the Normington Petts polling analysis suggested that McMorrow, despite being behind on this ballot test, has a “higher upside” because “Stevens is also uniquely vulnerable to attacks from Republicans based on her voting record with President Biden — a criticism that does not apply to McMorrow.”
North Carolina
Though most Democrats are waiting to see if former Gov. Roy Cooper will enter the US Senate race, US Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) this week indicated that he is considering entering the now open statewide campaign since Sen. Thom Tillis (R) has announced he will not seek re-election. Conversely, newly elected Attorney General Jeff Jackson (D) ended speculation about him running for the Senate. Mr. Jackson said he will not enter the federal race even if former Gov. Cooper chooses not to run. Ex-US Rep. Wiley Nickel is already an announced Democratic candidate.
While Democrats are waiting to see whether Mr. Cooper runs for the Senate, Republicans are similarly watching if either presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump or Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley will become candidates. Carolina Hurricanes Hockey Club former President Jim Cain says he would be interested in seeking the GOP nomination if both Trump and Whatley decide not to run. Regardless of who ultimately runs, the North Carolina Senate race will be a premier national US Senate campaign.
South Carolina
Former Lt. Governor Andre Bauer announced that he will launch a Republican primary challenge against South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. Mr. Bauer was elected to two terms as the state’s Lt. Governor, in 2002 and 2006. Since that time, he has run unsuccessfully for Governor and the 7th Congressional District, failing each time to win the Republican nomination. Sen. Graham remains the clear favorite for renomination and re-election.
HOUSE
AZ-7
The Deja Foxx campaign released the results of their Change Research poll (6/26-29; 540 AZ-7 likely special election Democratic primary voters; online) that finds former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva’s Democratic primary lead shrinking against Ms. Foxx to 43-35% with former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez dropping to just 9% support. The special primary elections are scheduled for next week, July 15. The Democratic winner will become the prohibitive favorite to win the September 23 special election for the right to succeed the late US Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) who passed away in March.
CA-3
Two-term Congressman Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) has drawn his second 2026 Democratic opponent. Marine Corps veteran and Jeopardy! game show winner Tyler Vandenberg joined a Democratic congressional field that already features Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall. The general election again figures to be contested, but Rep. Kiley remains the favorite to score another victory in the low to mid 50s. The California jungle primary will be held June 2.
CT-1
Fourteen-term US Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune in one of several campaigns where the candidates’ age discrepancy will be a major issue. Rep. Larson turns 77 years of age this month and has some health issues, while Ms. Fortune is 37. This could be a primary to watch. The Connecticut primary will be held August 11, 2026.
IA-1
While former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) held Iowa US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) to a tight 799-vote victory in November, her performance has not given her a clear path in the 2026 Democratic primary. This week, well-heeled attorney Taylor Wettach declared his candidacy following former state Rep. Bob Krause’s announcement. Therefore, expect this Democratic primary and subsequent general election to become highly competitive.
NE-2
With five-term US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) retiring, this Omaha anchored district is moving leftward and will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity. As expected, former state Senator and ex-gubernatorial candidate Brett Lindstrom (R) announced his candidacy this weekend. Already in the Republican primary race is Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding. The leading Democratic candidate is state Sen. John J. Cunningham (D-Omaha). This contest will develop into a hard-fought, close campaign. The parties will choose their nominees on May 12, 2026.
PA-3
US Rep. Dwight Evans’s (D-Philadelphia) retirement announcement has left an open Democratic primary that promises to be crowded. Already, state Senator Shariff Street (D-Philadelphia), son of former Philadelphia Mayor John Street, state Rep. Chris Rabb (D-Philadelphia), and physician Dave Oxman have declared their congressional candidacies. Pennsylvania’s 3rd District is the Democrats’ safest seat in the state, so whoever wins this May 19 primary will be a lock for the general election.
TN-6
With Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) running for Governor, the Congressman’s chief of staff, Van Hilleary (R) who himself served as the state’s 4th District Congressman from 1995-2003, scheduled a “big beautiful announcement” for the end of this week. In doing so, Mr. Hilleary is laying the groundwork for his return to elective politics in an attempt to succeed his current boss. Also announcing his candidacy is state Rep. Johnny Garrett (R-Hendersonville). The eventual GOP nominee will be the prohibitive favorite for the general election.
TN-7
Because Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) is resigning from the House on July 20, the first Democratic candidate filed with the Federal Election Commission. State Representative Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) has officially entered the special election, and several others will soon be following suit.
Four Republicans have declared their candidacies with state Rep. Lee Reeves (R-Franklin) being the most recent candidate to formally enter. Rep. Reeves joins former state cabinet official Matt Van Epps, Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight, and state Representative Jay Reedy (R-Erin) in the GOP field vying to replace Rep. Green.
While Democrats clearly are making an effort, the eventual Republican nominee will be the clear favorite in the special general election. Once Mr. Green officially leaves office, Gov. Bill Lee (R) will have ten days to announce the special election calendar.
VA-1
Local Democrats are seemingly coming out of the political woodwork to compete for the right to challenge GOP Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross) in the 2026 general election. The district is enticing them because it is the only Virginia CD where President Trump’s 2024 performance fell under his 2020 benchmark. Still, the President carried the 1st District with a 52-47% victory margin last November.
Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, who came within two percentage points of winning the 2025 Attorney General primary, is confirming she is considering entering the 1st District race. Already, four other Democrats have announced. Rep. Wittman will be favored for re-election, but this district appears to be becoming competitive for the first time since the Congressman was originally elected in a 2007 special election.
GOVERNOR
Georgia
In a move that carried little in the way of surprise, Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones announced that he will compete for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. He will face Attorney General Chris Carr for the party nod. The eventual winner will then move into a tight open general election battle possibly with former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Both parties expect tight primaries. Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is ineligible to run for a third term.
Iowa
Attorney General Brenna Bird (R), who at earlier points in the year was expected to launch a Republican primary challenge against Sen. Joni Ernst and then was discussed regarding the open Governor’s race announced this week that she won’t run for either.
AG Bird not being in the race is good news for the perceived leader, US Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City). Sen. Ernst and US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) then followed with their own endorsements for Rep. Feenstra. Surprisingly, the state’s other Congressman, Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant/Des Moines), is sending signals that he may have an interest in running for Governor now that Ms. Bird has declined.
Kansas
State Insurance Commissioner and former state Senator Vicki Schmidt joined the expanding Kansas Republican gubernatorial field this week. Previously announced are former Gov. Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Scott Schwab, along with several local officials. Democrats have yet to see any candidate officially declare to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D).
Michigan
Saying that “…President Trump’s America First policies are already having positive effects for Americans,” and that she wants to help further the agenda’s progress, 2022 Michigan Republican gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon announced that she will run neither for Governor nor Senator next year. The announcement helps the GOP leadership clear the primary fields for US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) in the open Governor’s race, and ex-US Rep. Mike Rogers in the open Senate campaign.
New York
US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx), who had been testing the waters for a gubernatorial primary challenge to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul said during the week that he is unlikely to enter the statewide campaign. Assuming Rep. Torres stays in his congressional seat, the prime beneficiary of his decision is Lt. Governor and former Congressman Antonio Delgado who would likely face Gov. Hochul in a one-on-one contest. The Governor was doing well if the anti-Hochul vote was split. She is still favored to win the party nomination, but the June primary race is becoming interesting.
Pennsylvania
US Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas) announced this week that he will not run for Governor next year, ending a long period of political speculation about his political plans. State Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) continues to prepare to soon launch her own gubernatorial bid. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is expected to seek a second term and will be considered a clear favorite to win again in 2026.
