SENATE
Georgia
US Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) confirmed he is still considering entering the Republican US Senate primary with the goal of opposing first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year, but injected another possibility. The Congressman said he is also looking at seeking re-election in 2026 and weighing the option of challenging Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) in the 2028 election cycle.
Iowa
State Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) announced that he will join the growing Democratic field competing to oppose Sen. Joni Ernst (R) next year. Last week, state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City) announced his candidacy. Local Chamber of Commerce Executive Director and retired Army veteran Nathan Sage are also in the race. Sen. Ernst will be favored for re-election but expect a competitive general election campaign to develop.
Michigan
A new Global Strategy Group Senate Democratic primary poll was released during the week. The survey (5/28-6/2; 800 MI likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), conducted for state Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s (D-Royal Oak) campaign, found US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) leading the field with 24% followed closely with McMorrow’s 20% support figure. Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed is third with 15%, and state Representative and former House Speaker Joe Tate (D-Detroit) follows with 4% preference. The Michigan partisan primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
HOUSE
AZ-5
Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R) confirms greater interest in possibly entering the open 5th District congressional race after another new poll finds him holding a commanding lead in the Republican primary. The NextGenP polling firm conducted the latest survey (6/4; 953 AZ-5 likely Republican primary voters; text) and sees Mr. Lamb posting a 55-8-3% lead over former NFL place kicker and CBS News sports reporter Jay Feeley and ex-state House Speaker Pro Tempore Travis Grantham, respectively.
AZ-5 is the second strongest Republican district in the state, meaning the eventual GOP nominee will be a lock in the general election. Incumbent Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is running for Governor.
CA-32
Former Biden Administration climate change official Jake Levine (D), son of former Congressman Mel Levine (D) who left the House in 1993, says he is considering becoming the fourth Democrat to challenge veteran Democratic US Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks). Under California’s jungle primary system, all candidates are placed on the same qualifying election ballot and the top two advance into the general election irrespective of party affiliation. In this case, a June 2 vote resulting in a double-Democratic general election campaign is a possibility. Rep. Sherman was first elected in 1996.
NJ-11
Former Congressman Tom Malinowski (D), who lost his seat in 2022 to Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) says he has “no plans” to enter the crowded Democratic field to compete for his old seat. He is apparently on the list of potential candidates to run in a special election for the 11th District, however, should incumbent Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) win the November general election for Governor.
NC-6
Freshman US Rep. Addison McDowell (R-Advance) was unopposed in the general election in his initial election. Such will not be the case in his bid for a first re-election, however. High Point Mayor Cyril Jefferson (D) announced at the end of last week that he will seek the Democratic nomination with the goal of challenging Rep. McDowell in November of 2026. Under the 2023 redistricting plan, North Carolina’s 6th District holds a 56.6R – 41.3D partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.
PA-7
Former Justice Department official Ryan Crosswell, who just recently joined the Democratic Party, announced that he will enter the District 7 Democratic field that already has two participants. Mr. Crosswell was a member of the Public Integrity Unit at DOJ, meaning he will be in the crosshairs of attacks regarding weaponization of the legal system.
Already, Democratic candidates Lamont McClure and former congressional aide Carol Obando-Derstine are attacking Crosswell as a carpetbagger (he recently returned to Pennsylvania after living elsewhere for more than 20 years), and as a newcomer to the Democratic Party. The early preliminary fireworks suggest that this will become a contentious primary battle. The eventual Democratic nominee will challenge freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie) in a politically marginal district sure to become a national US House campaign.
TN-7
Tennessee US Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), who originally said he would not seek re-election in 2024, but recanted, says he will resign from the House after the “Big Beautiful Bill” is enacted. Mr. Green says he will leave Congress to accept an opportunity in the private sector. Upon the Congressman resigning, Gov. Bill Lee (R) will schedule a special election to fill the vacancy. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, TN-7 is the second most Republican district in the Volunteer State with a partisan lean of 67.9R – 30.3D.
Two Republicans immediately declared their special election candidacies. Matt Van Epps, the State General Services Commissioner, a state cabinet position, resigned his office in order to launch his congressional candidacy. Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight also announced for the 7th District Republican nomination.
TX-18
Texas state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D-Houston) announced that she is joining the expanding field attempting to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston). The special jungle primary has been scheduled concurrently with the November 4 municipal election calendar. A runoff will occur if no candidate receives majority support on the initial vote.
Aside from Rep. Jones, the leading candidates appear to be Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D), former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, and energy lobbyist Zoe Cadore among the 18 announced Democratic candidates. Since the 18th CD is heavily Democratic, any runoff election will feature two intra-party member candidates.
VA-1
Two Virginia Democrats declared their congressional candidacies during the week. Chesterfield County Circuit Court Clerk Amanda Pohl and former New York Times administrative official Lisa Vedernikova Khanna both announced they will compete to challenge ten-term congressional veteran Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross) in a district that The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators found is the only Old Dominion CD where Kamala Harris outperformed President Biden. In 2024, President Trump carried the district, 52-47%. Rep. Wittman will again be favored for re-election.
GOVERNOR
Florida
The Victory Insights survey research firm conducted a statewide Florida gubernatorial poll soon after former US Rep. David Jolly, a former Republican, Independent and Forward Party member, announced that he would compete for the Democratic nomination. According to the poll (6/7-10; 600 FL likely general election voters; text), US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) would lead Mr. Jolly, 37-31% on the initial ballot test.
Less than half of the polling sample, however, are familiar with both men. Florida polling has also been inaccurate especially during the 2024 election cycle in that the pollsters consistently underestimated Republican strength. This is likely due to the large shift toward Republicans in voter registration, for which the pollsters may not be effectively accounting.
Maine
As expected, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree (D), daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), announced her gubernatorial candidacy via video message during the week. She joins Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King, III, son of US Sen. Angus King (I-ME), and former state Senate President Troy Jackson in the Democratic field. All are vying to succeed term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D).
New Jersey
New Jersey US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and former state Assemblyman and 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli easily won their respective Democratic and Republican primaries on Tuesday, setting up an interesting open Governor’s race in the Autumn. The eventual general election winner will succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D).
Rep. Sherrill defeated Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Sean Spiller, the Montclair Mayor and teachers’ union president, and former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney with a victory percentage exceeding 34% among the six candidates. On the Republican side, Mr. Ciattarelli had an easier time topping radio talk show host Bill Spadea, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Plainfield), and two minor contenders. The Ciattarelli vote total was over 68%, which greatly exceeded the early polling projections.
New Mexico
Lt. Gov. Howie Morales (D) announced that he will not enter the 2026 open gubernatorial campaign. This likely sets the open Democratic field vying to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) to former US Interior Secretary and ex-US Rep. Deb Haaland, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, and ex-Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima.
On the Republican side, businessman Duke Rodriguez who owns a major medical cannabis company, confirms that he is considering entering the race. If he does, Mr. Rodriguez says he will self-fund to the degree of at least $2 million, according to The Down Ballot political blog. The eventual Democratic nominee will begin the general election as a clear favorite to win the November 2026 vote.
New York
US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) made an interesting comment when asked if he would enter next year’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. The Congressman indicated that an Andrew Cuomo victory in the New York City primary campaign to be decided at the end of June would be a determining factor as to whether he will run for Governor. He did not explain why Mr. Cuomo’s political status affects his decision about running statewide. Last week, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado announced that he will challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul for renomination.
Oklahoma
The Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates conducted their regular Sooner Survey (5/5-9; 500 OK likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) and again see Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond leading the Republican primary field in the state’s open gubernatorial contest. According to the ballot test result, AG Drummond posts a 39-12-10% lead over State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters and Lt. Governor Matt Pinnell with all other potential contenders trailing in single digits. Of the three top tested individuals, only Mr. Drummond is an officially announced gubernatorial candidate. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
STATE AND LOCAL
Harris County, TX
A major campaign will commence for the Harris County Judge (Executive) position this year. Former Houston Mayor Annise Parker (D) announced that she will challenge incumbent Judge Lina Hidalgo (D) in what promises to be a multi-million dollar local campaign before a population greater than 5 million individuals.
San Antonio
Former twice-defeated congressional candidate Gina Ortiz Jones topped Republican Rolando Pablos 54-46% in the ostensibly nonpartisan race last Saturday to win the San Antonio mayoral post. Ms. Ortiz Jones will replace term-limited Mayor Ron Nirenberg (D) in Texas’ second largest city.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
