PRESIDENT
Nebraska
Gov. Jim Pillen (R) is calling for the unicameral legislature to place a constitutional amendment referendum on the 2026 ballot to return Nebraska to winner-take-all status in the presidential race. Currently, the Cornhusker State is one of two places, Maine being the other, that allows each congressional district to award its own electoral vote. In three separate elections the Democratic nominee has earned one electoral vote from the Omaha anchored 2nd Congressional District even though the Republican nominee was carrying the state.
Gov. Pillen encouraged the legislature to change the system in the last session, but failed when opponents launched a filibuster. This approach, legislation allowing the people to decide whether to change their presidential system, has a reasonable chance of gaining legislative approval.
SENATE
Alabama
President Donald Trump this week announced his endorsement of US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in the open Alabama Senate race. Rep. Moore’s principal Republican opponents are Attorney General Steve Marshall, who is leading in all polling, and retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson. The eventual GOP nominee will become the prohibitive favorite for the general election. Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is running for Governor.
Alaska
Public Policy Polling (for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee; 1/16-17; 611 AK registered voters; live interview & text) finds former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) posting a small 49-47% lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R). Polling such as this is not surprising. Alaska Democrats tend to poll stronger in the early part of the election cycle but fade as the election draws near. This same pattern will likely again appear later this year.
Georgia
Public Opinion Strategies (for Plymouth Union Public Research; 1/13-15; 600 GA likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) conducted a rare survey of the Georgia US Senate Republican primary and finds US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) posting his strongest lead of the campaign.
According to the POS ballot test, Mr. Collins has a 32-16-12% lead over US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) and former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley. Despite the Collins advantage, it is likely that the top two primary finishers will advance to a May 19 runoff election. The eventual party nominee will then face first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in the general election.
Kentucky
The Kentucky Senate Republican primary to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) has seen a significant change. Elon Musk announced he is funding a $10 million Super PAC to support businessman Nate Morris who has already self-financed and raised over $5 million for his campaign effort.
Mr. Morris, who unleashed early attack ads against his opponents in linking them with Sen. McConnell and “the Washington swamp,” faces an uphill climb in the GOP primary against former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington). The eventual Republican nominee will become a heavy general election favorite.
Louisiana
Three-term Louisiana US Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) has joined the group challenging GOP Senator Bill Cassidy. The Senator confirmed he received a message from Rep. Letlow saying that she will oppose him in this year’s Republican primary, and then publicly announced her intentions. President Trump has endorsed her candidacy and did so even before the Congresswoman decided to run statewide.
It has long been presumed that the President would be active in this race since Sen. Cassidy is one of just two Republican Senators on the 2026 ballot to have voted for impeachment pertaining to the January 6 controversy at the Capitol. Recently, Mr. Trump has been more conciliatory toward the Senator, but it is still clear that he would prefer a different Republican to join Sen. John Kennedy (R) in representing Louisiana.
Minnesota
Former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya, who came to prominence through her years as part of the NFL Sunday Night Football telecasting team for NBC Sports, announced that she will seek the Republican US Senate nomination. She will face either Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan or US Representative Angie Craig in the general election. While Ms. Tafoya will be a decided underdog, she promises to be a credible Republican voice for the November campaign.
New Hampshire
The University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center (1/15-19; 2,239 NH registered voters, 2,053 NH likely general election voters; 893 NH likely Democratic primary voters; 967 NH likely Republican primary voters; online) released another edition of their regular Granite State poll from an exhaustive survey questionnaire.
In the Senate general election polling, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) leads former US Senator John E. Sununu, 50-45%. If former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown were the Republican nominee, Rep. Pappas’ advantage would be 52-42 percent. In the Republican primary, Mr. Sununu leads ex-Sen. Brown 48-25 percent. For the Democrats, the Pappas primary lead over scientist Karishma Manzur is 65-11. Three-term incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is retiring.
North Carolina
Change Research conducted the Carolina Forward Poll (1/5-7; 1,105 NC likely voters; 354 NC likely Republican primary voters; online) and found former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leading ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley 47-42%. In the Republican primary, Mr. Whatley posts a 36% preference figure with no other candidate reaching even 7% support. The North Carolina Senate race will be one of the premier national 2026 campaigns and likely the Democrats’ best opportunity to convert a Republican seat. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring after two terms.
Texas
The latest Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll of the Texas Senate race was released (1/10-12; 1,165 TX registered voters; 413 TX likely Democratic primary voters; 550 TX likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and we see a significant difference in the Democratic primary when comparing with a HIT Strategies poll (1/6-15; 1,005 TX likely Democratic primary voters; live interview and text) also conducted within the same time frame.
On the Republican side, the ballot test result again suggests that Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton will advance to a secondary runoff election because neither will garner majority support in the March 3 primary. In the general election, the eventual Republican nominee would post a slight lead over the Democratic candidate.
In the Democratic primary the difference between the two ballot test results is major. Emerson College, for the first time, sees state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) posting a lead over US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas). Emerson finds the Talarico advantage at 47-38%. HIT Strategies, however, with a much larger polling sample, projects virtually the opposite result. They find Rep. Crockett recording a 38-26% edge over Mr. Talarico, which is consistent with previous polling results from other sources.
HOUSE
CA-1
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville) to be held concurrently with the state’s June 2 primary election, which is the latest possible day the vote could be calendared and comply with California law. If no candidate receives majority support in the first vote, a runoff will be scheduled for August 4. At this point, only state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) has expressed interest in running. The special election will be conducted in the previous 1st District, which favors Republicans, and not the 2025 version that favors Democrats.
LA-5
With US Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) leaving the House to run for the Senate, a great deal of attention is being paid to ex-Rep. Garret Graves (R) who was drawn out of his seat in the most recent redistricting map that is currently before the US Supreme Court. Mr. Graves, however, is not expressing positive comments about returning to the House. The final Supreme Court ruling will largely determine how the 5th District is configured, so it is likely we will not see much action here until the high court finally renders an opinion.
MD-6
Former Congressman David Trone (D), who spent $62 million of his own money in a failed 2024 US Senate attempt, has already invested $5.4 million of his funds into a 2026 congressional campaign committee for his attempt to unseat freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac). From his large self-funded investment, Mr. Trone is reporting $3.6 million cash-on-hand. Early polling is favoring Rep. Delaney for renomination. Ex-Rep. Trone represented District 6 for three terms.
NH-1
The aforementioned New Hampshire Granite Poll (see NH Senate above) interviewed 958 NH-1 likely voters. Among those saying they will participate in the Democratic primary, former Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring US Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D), holds a 33-10-8% advantage over state Rep. Heath Howard (D-Strafford) and ex-Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan.
On the Republican side, businesswoman and former NH GOP Vice-Chair Hollie Noveletsky records a 15-10% preference over businessman Anthony DiLorenzo. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a slight favorite to hold the competitive 1st District in the general election.
NH-2
The Granite Poll also interviewed 1,093 NH-2 likely voters. Here, freshman US Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) holds a 66-12% lead over state Rep. Paige Beauchemin (D-Nashua) in the Democratic primary. In the general election pairing, the Congresswoman is projected to lead 2024 nominee Lily Tang Williams (R), 54-40%. In 2024, Ms. Goodlander defeated Ms. Williams, 51-43 percent.
NY-11
A New York court has ruled the state’s 11th Congressional District that covers Staten Island and stretches across the water to Brooklyn as a racial gerrymander and wants the state Redistricting Commission to draw a new map by February 6. It is probable that Republicans will challenge the ruling. A new draw will likely make Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ (R-Staten Island) district much more Democratic. This is another redistricting matter that will likely be determined by the Supreme Court’s eventual ruling on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case.
GOVERNOR
Colorado
The road to the Governorship might not be as easy as Sen. Michael Bennet (D) initially believed. In 2025, Attorney General Phil Weiser (D) outraised Sen. Bennet, $4.6 million to $3.5 million and has a cash-on-hand advantage of $3.4 million to $1.6 million. Both men are vying for the opportunity of succeeding term-limited Gov. Jared Polis (D).
Maryland
Former Governor Larry Hogan (R), who served two terms as the state’s chief executive but lost the 2024 US Senate race to current Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D), says he will not challenge Gov. Wes Moore (D) later this year, nor will he again run for elective office. Gov. Moore is a heavy favorite for re-election to a second term and a possible 2028 presidential candidate.
New Hampshire
The UNH Granite Poll also surveyed the Governor’s race. Here, the pollsters find first-term Governor and former US Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern, a possible Democratic candidate, 49-41 percent. She posts a stronger 50-39% advantage over businessman Jon Kiper who is an announced Democratic gubernatorial candidate.
