SENATE
Illinois
Land of Lincoln voters chose their nominees on St. Patrick’s Day, and the late polls showing Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton eclipsing the perennial early lead of US Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi in the open Democratic US Senate primary proved correct.
On election night, Ms. Stratton topped Congressman Krishnamoorthi by five percentage points. Congresswoman Robin Kelly placed a distant third. The Stratton victory means that she will replace retiring Senator Dick Durbin. Because Illinois is such a Democratic state, Ms. Stratton is a lock in November.
Kentucky
A newly released Public Opinion Strategies survey confirms that Kentucky US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are evolving into a toss-up Republican primary battle, which is the first step toward succeeding retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).
Businessman Nate Morris is the third significant GOP Senatorial candidate, though nine additional Republicans will be on the ballot. Mr. Morris has injected more than $5 million of his own money into his Senate campaign and is positioned to benefit from a $10 million Super PAC that Elon Musk supported. Still, he significantly trails Mr. Cameron and Rep. Barr.
The POS survey finds the former Attorney General retaking the lead at 31-29% over Rep. Barr, meaning a virtual tie, while Mr. Morris, who has advertised heavily, trails with a 13% support figure. The Kentucky plurality primary is scheduled for May 19th.
Louisiana
We saw another poll released during the week that again shows Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) in trouble for renomination. Fabrizio Lee & Associates released the results of their new Louisiana survey (3/11-12; 600 LA likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) that projects US Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) posting a slight one-point lead over Sen. Cassidy, 27-26 percent. State Treasurer John Fleming was third with 19% preference.
Once again, we see evidence that the May 16th Louisiana partisan Republican primary will end with no candidate receiving majority support. If this scenario does become reality, the nomination will be settled in a June 27th runoff election.
Nebraska
Secretary of State Bob Evnen (R) has removed Nebraska Democratic candidate Cindy Burbank from the US Senate primary ballot ruling that she is a “proxy” for another candidate. On her campaign website, Ms. Burbank states that she will pull out of the race and endorse Independent Dan Osborn if she wins the primary. Therefore, Secretary Evnen declared that Ms. Burbank has disqualified herself citing the oath that states a qualified candidate pledges to serve in the office for which he or she is running.
Pro-life Pastor Bill Forbes is a qualified Democratic candidate and will now appear unopposed on the primary ballot. Democrats claim he is a “proxy” for Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) because it is well known that the party leaders plan to endorse Osborn as they did in 2024 when he challenged Sen. Deb Fischer (R). Rev. Forbes has made no statement saying he would support either Osborn or Sen. Ricketts if nominated. Having a Democratic candidate on the ballot will likely pull votes away from Mr. Osborn who will appear on the Independent ballot line.
North Carolina
After three 2026 surveys gave former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) a lead beyond the polling margin of error, a new Democratic Public Policy Polling study finds a much closer contest between Mr. Cooper and Republican nominee Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman. According to the PPP figures (3/13-14; 556 NC registered voters; live interview & text), the Cooper lead is only 47-44%. North Carolina always features close statewide general elections, and it is likely that the 2026 US Senate race will also end in another tight Tar Heel State finish.
Oklahoma
US Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) appears to have an easy road toward replacing Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) when the latter is confirmed as Secretary of Homeland Security. Both Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) and US Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) announced they will not run for the Senate. President Trump and US Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) have already endorsed Rep. Hern.
Under Oklahoma election law, a special election will be called concurrently with the next regular election to fill the balance of the term. In this case, since the Mullin seat is in-cycle this year, the balance of the term only covers the period between the November general election and the beginning of the new Congress in January. Once Mr. Mullin is confirmed as Secretary, he will resign from the Senate and Gov. Stitt will appoint a replacement who will not be eligible to run in the special election or for the regular term.
South Carolina
Impact Research just released a South Carolina US Senate survey conducted over a month ago (2/25-3/1; SC voters) that finds Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) leading pediatrician Annie Andrews (D) by only a 47-42% clip. The last time Sen. Graham was on the ballot Democratic candidate Jamie Harrison, who later would chair the Democratic National Committee, spent over $131 million in his attempt to unseat Sen. Graham but failed 54-44%.
Sen. Graham has Republican primary opposition from self-funding businessman Mark Lynch and seven other minor GOP candidates. The Senator is favored for renomination and re-election.
HOUSE
AL-1
The regular Alabama Poll tested the 1st Congressional District Republican primary where former US Rep. Jerry Carl is attempting a political comeback. The survey (3/5-8; 400 AL-1 likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) finds Mr. Carl holding a 28-19-9% lead over state Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) and businessman Joshua McKee. Rep. Carl served two terms until a court ordered redistricting map paired him with US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) who is now running for Senate. While Mr. Carl is leading the 2026 race, the polling data suggests a runoff will occur between the former Congressman and state Rep. Marques.
FL-27
It appears newly announced Democratic candidate Elliott Rodriguez, a long time Miami television news anchor, is well positioned to win the Democratic primary and the right to challenge three-term US Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami).
Well-known Florida pollster Bendixen & Amandi International conducted a CD-27 Democratic primary survey (3/4-9; 400 FL-27 likely Democratic primary voters; online; English & Spanish) and projects Mr. Rodriguez to hold a 43-16-14% advantage over attorney Robin Peguero and businessman Richard Lamondin. The Florida plurality primary is scheduled for August 18th. The general election will be competitive.
GA-13
A new survey finds veteran US Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) in serious trouble in his quest for a 13th term. Rep. Scott was a retirement possibility due to health problems but filed for re-election as he promised. He has six Democratic opponents.
A new Z to A Research poll was just publicly released (3/10-13; 522 GA-13 likely Democratic primary voters) that sees the Congressman holding only a one point, 31-30% lead over state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) with dentist Heavenly Kimes pulling 10% support. All other contenders are in single digits. This data suggests the race will advance to a runoff election because no candidate will receive majority support. Such a result could spell the end to Mr. Scott’s congressional tenure. The Georgia primary is May 19th; runoff: June 16th.
Illinois House Primary Results
In House races, two former congressional members were engaged in comeback attempts. Former Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. failed to regain his 2nd District seat after a 14-year absence. Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller was victorious.
Conversely, former Congresswoman Melissa Bean was successful in her return. She was first elected in 2004 but lost her seat after three terms. Her 8th District primary victory on Tuesday virtually guarantees her return to Congress. The current 8th District is more Democratic than the seat she represented in the past.
In the tight open 7th and 9th District races, Chicago state Representative LaShawn Ford and Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss each won their respective Democratic primary. Both will also come to Washington next year.
IA-4
In western Iowa, we will see Chamber of Commerce president Chris McGowan run unopposed for a safe Republican open congressional seat. Two of his opponents failed to qualify because of insufficient petition signatures. Mr. McGowan now is virtually assured of winning the seat in the general election.
ME-1 & 2
Democratic state Representative Tiffany Roberts failed to obtain 2,000 valid petition signatures to secure a ballot line against US Representative Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/ Portland). Therefore, the Congresswoman is now unopposed for renomination. Former Governor Paul LePage, now running for the US House, saw his 2nd District Republican opponent also fail to qualify due to petition signature problems. He is now unopposed for the party nomination.
NJ-11
A GBAO polling organization survey (3/8-10; 500 NJ-11 likely special election voters; live interview & text) conducted for Democratic Socialist Analilia Mejia finds their client leading Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway (R) 53-36% as the candidates move toward the April 16th special general election. Clearly, Ms. Mejia is in the driver’s seat to win the upcoming election. The 11th District is vacant because then-US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) was elected Governor in November of 2025.
TX-32
Former minor Republican presidential candidate Ryan Binkley has conceded his right to a runoff congressional election. Space Force veteran Jace Yarbrough, who had both President Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott’s endorsement, will now win the newly created 32nd District that contains part of Dallas. Mr. Yarbrough scored 49% of the vote in the primary, one percentage short of winning outright; hence, Mr. Binkley’s decision to concede the nomination.
GOVERNOR
Illinois
In the Illinois gubernatorial primaries, incumbent J.B. Pritzker was unopposed for renomination to a third term. He will again face former state Senator Darren Bailey. The two squared off four years ago and the Governor recorded a 12-point win. The rematch will likely end in similar fashion.
Iowa
Democratic activist Julie Stauch ended her campaign for Governor this week. She indicated that she will not be able to qualify for the ballot due to insufficient petition signatures. This means that State Auditor Rob Sand will be unopposed for the open Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Republicans have five candidates including US Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City), a state Representative and two former state legislators. The Iowa primary is scheduled for June 2nd.
South Carolina
Two new polls again find a free-for-all among at least three Republican gubernatorial candidates striving to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R). Two new independent polls find US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, and Attorney General Alan Wilson all within several points of each other. A runoff in this race is a virtual certainty, but the eventual top two finisher slots are both up for grabs.
The Quantus Insights poll (3/10-11; 806 SC likely Republican primary voters) posts a 22-22-16-11% candidate order for Rep. Mace, AG Wilson, Lt. Gov. Evette, and US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill). The co/efficient organization (3/12-13; 810 SC likely Republican primary voters; online) projects a 22-21-19-8% order for Mace, Evette, Wilson, and Norman. The South Carolina primary is scheduled for June 9th. The runoff is only two weeks later on June 23rd. The eventual Republican nominee will become a heavy favorite in the general election.
South Dakota
Public Opinion Strategies tested the South Dakota Republican electorate on behalf of Gov. Larry Rhoden who is on the ballot for the first time in his new position after ascending to the office when then-Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned to become US Homeland Security Secretary.
According to the POS data (3/2-5; 400 SD likely Republican primary voters; live interview), at-large US Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) leads Gov. Rhoden, businessman Toby Doeden and state House Speaker Jon Hansen (R-Dell Rapids), 33-28-16-10%. If no candidate receives at least 35% of the vote in the June 2nd primary, the top two finishers will advance to a July 28th runoff election.
