Several states hold primary elections – Key takeaways
Connecticut delivered the biggest surprise of another active primary night. Rep. John Larson (D‑Hartford), seeking a 15th term, lost his renomination bid by 20 percentage points to former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. Mr. Bronin will have little trouble holding the seat in November. Rep. Larson becomes the 10th U.S. House incumbent to lose renomination this year and the seventh Democrat.
In Wisconsin, state Rep. Francesca Hong (D‑Madison) entered the gubernatorial primary as an average 20‑point favorite, but in a surprisingly close finish she appears to have narrowly lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who had previously suspended his campaign.
For the second consecutive week, the polling community badly missed a race involving a Democratic Socialist candidate. In both the Wisconsin Governor and Michigan Senate contests, multiple pollsters projected major victories for Democratic Socialist contenders, and in each case the predictions proved wrong. Ms. Hong fell short, and Michigan’s Abdul El‑Sayed edged his principal Democratic opponent by just one percentage point despite averaging a 15‑point lead.
In South Carolina’s high‑profile Senate primary, appointed Sen. Darline Graham and U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill) advanced to an August 25th Republican runoff election. Ms. Graham recorded only 33% of the vote, meaning 67% of the roughly 335,000 GOP primary voters chose another candidate.
Rep. Norman, who lost the Governor’s race in June, finished second with 25%. U.S. Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach) placed third at 20% but remains on the November ballot as the Republican nominee in his 7th Congressional District.
Minnesota also featured a major campaign contest. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, aligned with the Democratic Socialists, defeated U.S. Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake) by a 59-40% margin. Ms. Flanagan advances to face former national sports reporter Michele Tafoya, who easily won the Republican primary. Some believe this race is a Republican sleeper for November.
In other races…
Alabama
Three significant post‑redistricting primaries were held yesterday. Former U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl, who lost his 2024 Republican primary after being redistricted into an incumbent pairing with Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise), appears poised to return to Congress. Under the 2026 map, which restores the Mobile metropolitan area as the 1st District’s major population anchor, Mr. Carl scored a commanding 75% victory in the Republican primary.
In the new 2nd District, state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) won a convincing Republican primary as expected. He advances to face U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures (D‑Mobile) in a southeastern Alabama district that now favors the GOP. The AL‑2 contest is a major Republican conversion target on the national House map.
In the Birmingham area, Rep. Gary Palmer (R‑Hoover/Shelby County) was easily renominated and is well positioned for another term in November. In the neighboring 7th District, educator Ammie Akin captured the Republican nomination but will be a heavy underdog against U.S. Rep. Terri Sewell (D‑Birmingham) in the state’s lone Democratic seat.
Connecticut
In the Constitution State’s other notable race, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) easily secured renomination for a third term, defeating state Rep. Josh Elliott (D‑Guilford) with 68% of the vote. Gov. Lamont will be a prohibitive favorite in the Autumn campaign against state Sen. Ryan Fazio (D‑Greenwich).
Minnesota
In addition to Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya winning the Democratic and Republican U.S. Senate nominations, Sen. Amy Klobuchar scored a dominant 90% victory in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. She will face state House Speaker Lisa DeMuth (R‑Cold Spring), who defeated My Pillow founder Mike Lindell in the GOP primary. Sen. Klobuchar enters the general election as the clear favorite to succeed outgoing Gov. Tim Walz (D).
In the open 2nd Congressional District, state Sen. Matt Little (D‑Lakeville) easily won the Democratic primary. State Sen. Eric Pratt (R‑Prior Lake), unopposed for the Republican nomination, will meet Little in what is expected to be a competitive race to replace Rep. Angie Craig.
Vermont
Economist Amanda Janoo slipped past University of Vermont Medical Center Board chair Aly Richards to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Ms. Janoo will now challenge Gov. Phil Scott who was unopposed for a sixth term on the Republican side. Despite Vermont’s strong Democratic voting history, Gov. Scott is once again favored for re-election.
Wisconsin
In addition to Mr. Crowley winning the right to challenge US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) in the open gubernatorial general election, several congressional primaries were decided.
In the politically marginal 3rd District, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R‑Prairie du Chien) will again face businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) in a rematch of their 51-49% contest from 2024. This will be one of the cycle’s top national House campaigns.
In a crowded 1st District Democratic primary, nurse Mitchell Berman prevailed with 40% of the vote. Mr. Berman advances to the general election as a decided underdog to four‑term U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil (R‑Janesville).
In the open 7th District, podcast producer Michael Alfonso – son‑in‑law of U.S. Transportation Secretary and former 7th District Congressman Sean Duffy, and backed by President Trump – won the Republican primary against four opponents. He now becomes a heavy favorite to defeat new Democratic nominee Fred Clark, a former state Representative.
