Must-watch elections in the bluest of the blue state — and in The Palmetto State
Voters in six states cast their final ballots today, and the two premier contests, the Minnesota and South Carolina Senate campaigns, are reviewed in this Update. Yesterday, we covered the three congressional races in Alabama along with the regular primaries taking place in Connecticut, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
Minnesota
With Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) a lock to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination tonight – and then the general election in November – the political focus shifts to the open U.S. Senate race. Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring, leaving the Democratic nomination to be decided between Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan and U.S. Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake).
Ms. Flanagan is the Democratic Socialist candidate and has consolidated substantial individual and institutional support. Her endorsements include Sens. Smith, Bernie Sanders (I‑VT), and Elizabeth Warren (D‑MA), along with Gov. Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar (D‑MN). Former Sen. Al Franken has also publicly backed her.
The Lt. Governor secured the official Minnesota Democratic‑Farmer‑Labor Party endorsement at the state convention, where she was so dominant among delegates that Rep. Craig did not participate.
In Minnesota politics, an official party endorsement often leads remaining opponents to exit the race. Such is not the case here. Rep. Craig, who holds a fundraising advantage, always intended to force a primary regardless of the convention outcome. Her most prominent Minnesota endorsement comes from Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, while her broader support base includes key labor unions and elected officials from other states.
Polling in the Democratic primary has been inconsistent. Seven surveys released since late May show a split picture: three with Flanagan leading, three with Craig ahead, and one tied. The race enters today’s vote as a genuine toss‑up, and a close result is expected.
On the Republican side, former national sports reporter Michele Tafoya holds a solid polling advantage and is expected to win comfortably tonight despite not receiving the official GOP endorsement. Ms. Tafoya, who grew up in Minnesota and built her broadcasting career in the state before moving to ESPN and NBC Sports, benefits from strong name recognition while developing a centrist public image.
National coverage of the potential general election has been limited, but Minnesota could emerge as a sleeper contest for Republicans. Early general election polling, though none has been released since late May, shows the prospective nominees within single digits. Should Ms. Tafoya remain competitive, national Republican groups will likely invest heavily late in the campaign.
In the congressional races, the Democratic primary for Rep. Craig’s open 2nd District is expected to be close. Two Democratic state Senators, one state Representative, a teacher, and a biochemist are competing for the nomination, with the winner holding an early edge heading into the Autumn. Republicans have unified behind state Sen. Eric Pratt (R‑Prior Lake), who is unopposed tonight.
Rep. Omar faces four Democratic challengers, but none have mounted a major campaign. She is expected to easily secure renomination.
South Carolina
Today is also the day that Palmetto State Republicans will begin the formal process of replacing the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot.
Three major candidates are competing for what will prove to be two runoff slots. They are: appointed Senator Darline Graham, the late Senator’s sister, and US Reps. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) and Russell Fry (R-Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach). Also on the ballot are former Governor and ex-Congressman Mark Sanford and businessman Mark Lynch, who attracted 29% of the vote against Sen. Graham in the 2026 Republican primary.
Polling is close, and all plausible scenarios point to Graham, Norman, and Fry advancing in various combinations. The runoff will be held quickly, a two‑week campaign concluding on August 25th. The winner will replace Lindsey Graham on the November ballot and face the Democratic nominee, physician and former congressional candidate Annie Andrews.
The fact that Darline Graham is not approaching the 50% threshold suggests she may struggle in a head‑to‑head runoff against either Congressman. Tonight’s vote will provide a clearer picture of how the race is likely to unfold.
