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PRESIDENT
Pennsylvania: Conflicting Polls
Four pollsters have released their late July Pennsylvania results; and while two of them (Susquehanna Polling & Research and Public Opinion Strategies) find Vice President Kamala Harris leading in the state, two others (Bloomberg/Morning Consult and Public Policy Polling) found former President Trump still leading with a slight advantage.
Susquehanna found Harris leading 47-43%, while Public Opinion Strategies posts the Vice President to a 48-45% edge.
Bloomberg/Morning Consult gives Trump a four-point lead, 50-46%, and Public Policy Polling also finds Mr. Trump with a slight edge at 48-47%.
This recent data suggests the race is a virtual dead heat and a long way from being decided.
SENATE
Ohio: Trump, Brown Up
The familiar President-Senate polling pattern we have witnessed in several states persists, even with a new Democratic presidential nominee. The bipartisan poll from Fabrizio Lee (R) and Impact Research (D) for AARP finds former President Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by nine percentage points, 48-39%, in Ohio. However, Republican US Senate nominee Bernie Moreno continues to trail Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). In the Senate ballot test, Sen. Brown leads by four points, 46-42%.
The Ohio margin spread is a net swing of 13 points, and a bit exaggerated from the other
states exhibiting a similar pattern. To capitalize on Trump's Ohio lead, the Moreno
campaign must find a better way of painting Sen. Brown in a negative light to move the election toward the GOP challenger. So far, this has not occurred.
HOUSE
Pennsylvania's 7th District Continues Toss-Up Trend
The latest Tarrance Group poll finds Rep. Susan Wild (D) again embroiled in a tight re-election contest.
In her last two races, Rep. Wild has won by close 51-49% margins over the same GOP opponent, businesswoman Lisa Scheller. This time, she faces a different competitor, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R).
The Tarrance ballot test finds Rep. Wild leading by close 47-45% margins, despite a large disparity in campaign resources. Meanwhile, former President Trump has a similar sized lead over Vice President Harris within the 7th District, 48-46%.
Texas' 18th District: Special Election Called
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) announced that he will schedule a special election to fill the seat of the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D). Whoever fills the seat will finish Lee's term until the general election. If no one secures a majority on Nov. 5, a runoff will be scheduled. At that point, however, there will only be a few days remaining in the current term.
The Harris County Democratic Party will choose a regular general election replacement for Rep. Jackson Lee.
The seat is heavily Democratic, so the field will consist almost entirely of that party's
members. Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner is an announced contender, as are
Houston Democratic state Representatives Jarvis Johnson and Christina Morales. Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, and former City Council members Amanda Edwards and Dwight Boykins make up the remainder of the challengers.
The party committee nomination process will occur before August 17, according to the county chairman.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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