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PRESIDENT
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr: Can't Withdraw in Key States
Though presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) wants to withdraw from the ballot in all key battleground states, certain election officials say they won't or can't (under state election law) remove his name. It appears that Mr. Kennedy's name will remain on the ballot in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin; meanwhile, it appears he won't appear on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia or Pennsylvania.
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released a memo suggesting the preponderance of Kennedy voters would move to Mr. Trump if their first choice, Mr. Kennedy, were not on the ballot. In Michigan, according to Fabrizio, the Kennedy vote breaks 43-41% in Trump's favor. The Nevada Kennedy vote split is a whopping 66-16% for Trump; North Carolina, 58-22%; and Wisconsin, 55-25%. Therefore, the Trump campaign and Mr. Kennedy will have to communicate to Kennedy voters in these affected states that the latter man is no longer in the race, irrespective of his ballot presence.
SENATE
Maryland: Hogan Moves Into Tie
The latest AARP Maryland poll projects that former Governor Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are deadlocked, with each attracting 46% support.
These results are much different than the last publicly-released survey, from Public Policy Polling, which was conducted over June 19-20. According to those results, Ms. Alsobrooks held a 48-40% lead. Before this, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14 Maryland primary polls, and the two found Ms. Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively.
The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this tight electoral pattern continue, the Maryland Senate race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.
Montana: Sheehy Rebounds
A new Public Opinion Strategies survey finds retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) climbing back into the lead over veteran Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D). According to the POS results, Mr. Sheehy leads the three-term incumbent, 51-44%.
Earlier in the month, RMG Research saw Tester leading 49-44%. Even the latter poll, however, flips to Sheehy if people believe that the Montana race will flip the Senate to Republican control. Under this argument, the ballot test reverses in Sheehy's favor by a 55-37% mark.
Aside from converting the West Virginia Democratic Senate seat – which appears to be a lock for the GOP – Montana is clearly the next-best contest for Republicans to topple a Democratic Senator and claim a bare-minimum Senate majority.
HOUSE
NJ-9: Endorsements and a Drop-Out
State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) has received a big bounce in her effort to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) on the New Jersey general election ballot.
New Jersey politics, in which the local county party chairmen have powerful positions, is still machine-driven. For the coming special Democratic Party meeting to replace Mr. Pascrell, all three of the 9th District's county chairmen – those from Passaic, Bergen and Hudson counties – have endorsed the local state Senator.
In another pre-meeting event, Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, thought to be the late Congressman's choice to succeed him, announced that he is removing himself from consideration. The remaining candidates are General Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) and State Senator Pou.
Editor's note: For resources on political action, including a downloadable Voter's Guide for Authentic Catholics provided by the Souls and Liberty Action Network, click here.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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