SENATE
Alabama
As expected, Alabama US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) made his expected entry into the open US Senate race official. He will at least compete against two-term Attorney General Steve Marshall in the Republican primary. The eventual party nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to win the general election. Rep. Moore’s move will open the state’s 1st Congressional District, yielding a competitive Republican primary. Former Congressman Jerry Carl (R) has already announced his candidacy as have two non-elected individuals.
Georgia
The TIPP Poll organization released the results of their new survey (7/28-8/1; 2,956 GA registered voters; online) that forecasts US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) potentially as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) top challenger. According to the related ballot test, Sen. Ossoff’s edge over Rep. Collins would be a scant 45-44%.
The other Republican candidates also poll well against Sen. Ossoff but draw less support than Rep. Collins. Savannah area Congressman Buddy Carter (R-Pooler) would pull within 44-40% of the Senator. Former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, son of legendary Georgia University football coach Vince Dooley, would trail 44-39% in a hypothetical general election pairing with the first-term incumbent.
TIPP also surveyed the likely Republican primary voters and found Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Mr. Dooley, 25-19-7%. Familiarity with the Republican candidates is not particularly high, however. This means the candidates will have to spend heavily during the nomination period just to win the right to challenge Sen. Ossoff.
Illinois
A new internal campaign poll for US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) finds a large lead developing. Z to A polling (for the Krishnamoorthi campaign; 8/8-10; 615 IL likely Democratic primary voters; online), projects Rep. Krishnamoorthi holding a 38-17-7% lead over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), respectively. When those leaning to one of the candidates are added, the Krishnamoorthi advantage expands to 51-28-13 percent.
In June, the GBAO research firm released an Illinois Senate survey (6/5-10; 1,200 IL likely Democratic primary voters) that posted Mr. Krishnamoorthi to a 32-19-14% edge over Lt. Gov. Stratton and Rep. Kelly so the more recent data suggests an expansion of the previous lead.
Maine
So far, the Democrats have not produced a major candidate to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but reports suggest that Attorney General Aaron Frey (D) is likely to run. If so, the move would suggest that outgoing Gov. Janet Mills (D) may not enter the Senate race. In Maine, the Attorney General is elected through a vote of the state legislature and not the voters. Mr. Frey has not previously run for a statewide elected office. Prior to being appointed as Attorney General, he served three terms in the Maine House of Representatives.
Ohio
Reports during the week were publicized saying former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown (D) has decided to launch a political comeback next year after losing his seat last November to Republican Bernie Moreno. In 2026, he would challenge appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) who replaced J.D. Vance when the latter man resigned to become Vice President.
Though Mr. Brown is a prodigious fundraiser (raised $103 million in 2024, second best of all Senate candidates) and has had a successful decades-long political career, the numbers suggest reversing his 2024 loss will be a formidable task.
Last November, now-Sen. Moreno defeated Mr. Brown by 206,434 votes, or a victory percentage margin of 50.1 – 46.5. What makes Brown’s task more difficult in 2026 is that he actually received more votes in his defeat than his most recent previous win, a 2018 re-election victory over then-US Rep. Jim Renacci (R). The cumulative results suggest the state is undergoing a major electoral shift.
South Carolina
Former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who just two weeks ago announced a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), has already ended his effort. Remaining in the GOP primary race are wealthy businessman Mark Lynch, Project 2025 founder Paul Dans, and several minor candidates. Sen. Graham is the prohibitive favorite for renomination and re-election next year.
HOUSE
AZ-6
Immigration attorney Mo Goldman (D) announced that he is ending his congressional campaign and endorsed retired Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza (D). With Ms. Mendoza already outraising Goldman by a 6:1 ratio according to the 2nd Quarter FEC campaign disclosure reports, Mr. Goldman decided he could not overcome Mendoza’s early advantage. Very likely, the move clinches the Democratic nomination for Mendoza, meaning she will battle two-term US Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) in what is proving to be a politically marginal congressional district.
FL-6
Attacking freshman Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) as someone who lives far from the district he won in an April special election, Flagler County School Board chairman Will Furry announced that he will challenge the Congressman for renomination in the Florida Republican primary. The state Senate district that Mr. Fine represented before winning his congressional seat is approximately 100 miles from the 6th CD border, suggesting that Fine’s familiarity with the congressional district could become a significant issue in the 2026 GOP primary campaign.
IN-4
State Rep. Chris Haggard (R-Mooresville) announced that he will challenge either US Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle) or state Rep. Beau Baird (R-Greencastle) for the congressional seat next year. Mr. Haggard said he will run against “whichever Baird enters the race.” It has long been thought that state Rep. Baird would attempt to succeed his father with the latter man decides to retire. For his part, Congressman Baird says he will seek re-election in 2026.
Louisiana
The US Supreme Court has set October 15 as the date the Louisiana redistricting case will again be heard. The high court held previous oral arguments but failed to reach a ruling decision in the previous Supreme Court session. It is presumed the court will rule on this case before the end of this year. Affirming the lower court order would mean a redraw of the state’s current congressional map.
TN-7
Candidate filing has closed for the October 7 special primary elections, the first step toward filling Tennessee’s vacant 7th Congressional District seat after former Rep. Mark Green (R) resigned in July. A total of 11 Republicans, including three state Representatives, four Democrats, including three state Representatives, and four Independents have filed for their respective special primary election. The eventual party nominees will then compete in an October 2nd special general election.
The 7th District carries a partisan lean of 55.1R – 42.1D. President Trump carried the district last November with 60.4% of the vote. Democrats claim their nominee will be competitive, but the eventual GOP standard bearer will begin the special election as the clear favorite.
TX-18
A new internal campaign poll was released for the TX-18 special election scheduled for November 4. A large field of 32 announced candidates are competing for the opportunity of replacing the late US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston). The eventual winner, however, may have a very short tenure in Congress. Once the new redistricting map is enacted, the new House member will very likely be forced to face US Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a paired incumbent situation.
Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-statewide candidate Amanda Edwards (D) released the results of her campaign’s Brilliant Corners survey (7/20-23; 500 TX-18 likely special election voters; live interview) that found her leading former Miss Universe contestant Carmen Maria Montiel (R), state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D-Houston), Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D), and George Foreman IV (I), 18-12-11-10-6%, respectively.
TX-23
Gun manufacturer Brandon Herrera, who forced US Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) into a 2024 Republican runoff election, announced that he will return for a re-match. In the runoff, Rep. Gonzales just slipped past Mr. Herrera with a 354 vote margin, so another hard fought contest is expected.
TX-37
Once the new congressional map is adopted, it appears that Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) and Greg Casar (D-Austin) will be paired in new district 37, which is wholly contained within Travis County. The race promises to produce a highly competitive campaign. Rep. Doggett sent an open letter to Mr. Casar suggesting he run in new District 35, which holds none of Travis County but anchored in San Antonio, and then east to annex rural Republican counties. Rep. Casar quickly dispelled that he would run anywhere but District 37.
WA-3
State Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Chehalis), as expected, announced his congressional candidacy in what is the second-most Republican seat that elects a Democrat to the US House. Mr. Braun entering the race gives the GOP an upgraded candidate to challenge two-term Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County). This race promises to become a premier national congressional campaign.
GOVERNOR
Alaska
If former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) enters the open 2026 Governor’s race, it appears she will have a strong chance of winning. A just-released Data for Progress survey from July (7/21-27; 678 AK likely jungle primary voters; text from an online sample pool) finds Ms. Peltola leading businesswoman and former radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson (R) and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), 40-11-10%.
Under the Alaska system, the top four candidates advance to the general election. If no candidate receives majority support in the general election, the Ranked Choice Voting process takes effect. The poll did not include Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), who confirms she is at least considering entering the Governor’s race.
Tennessee
The first poll since Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) announced for Governor has been released. Targoz Market Research published their flash poll results (7/28-8/1; 1,200 TN registered voters) finding Sen. Blackburn, as expected, posting a commanding lead over US Rep. John Rose (R-Clarksville). The Republican primary ballot test finds the Senator leading Rep. Rose 66-14%. If elected, Sen. Blackburn will become the first female Governor in Tennessee history.
Wyoming
State Sen. Eric Barlow (R-Gillette) this week became the first elected official to announce for Governor. The potential field is largely frozen awaiting a decision from Gov. Mark Gordon (R). While Wyoming has a two-term limit law for Governor, many legal scholars believe the prohibition could be successfully challenged. There is discussion that Gov. Gordon may do so in order to seek a third term.
Gov. Gordon has yet to make any public statement about the term limit, but he also hasn’t denied attempting to seek a third term. Should the Governor decide to retire, at-large US Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) is viewed as a likely gubernatorial candidate. The Wyoming primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026, with a candidate filing deadline to be set for a date next May. Therefore, much time remains for this situation to develop.
