SENATE
Florida
Educator and 2025 special election congressional nominee Josh Weil (D) announced that he is dropping his US Senate bid. Mr. Weil says a health condition prevents him from continuing his campaign. Earlier this year, Mr. Weil ran as a socialist in a conservative district but managed to raise over $15 million mostly from national sources. Mr. Weil lost to now-Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) by a 57-43% margin in the April special election.
Nine Democratic remain in the primary race. Former Congressman Alan Grayson is the only contender ever elected to office. Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is competing in the 2026 statewide special election to serve the balance of the current Senate term. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) appointed Ms. Moody, then the state’s Attorney General, to replace Marco Rubio who was appointed US Secretary of State.
Iowa
Two more Democrats are coming forward to enter the 2026 US Senate primary. Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, a former chief of staff to First Lady Michelle Obama, announced during the week that she will enter the Senate primary. Expected to soon declare is state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). Already in the Democratic primary are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City). The eventual party nominee will challenge Sen. Joni Ernst (R) in the general election.
North Carolina
Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley formally announced his US Senate bid with President Trump’s backing along with that of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. It is already evident that he will advance into a toss-up general election to face presumptive Democratic nominee Roy Cooper, the former two-term Governor and four-term Attorney General. Sen. Thom Tillis is not seeking re-election.
HOUSE
AL-1
In anticipation of Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) announcing for the Senate on August 15, former US Rep. Jerry Carl (R), who lost to Mr. Moore when the two were paired in one district after a 2023 court-ordered redistricting, has filed a 2026 congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. The move further suggests that Mr. Carl will attempt a political comeback once Rep. Moore officially declares for the open Senate seat as expected.
Chances appear strong that ex-Rep. Carl will be able to win the open 1st District Republican primary and the general election in November of 2026. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation for AL-1 is 76.5R – 22.0D.
CA-32
Jake Levine (D), a former Biden Administration and son of former US Rep. Mel Levine (D-CA), announced his challenge to veteran US Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks). Jake Rakov, a former Sherman staff member who says the Congressman has lost touch with his constituents, is also in the race. It is likely that another Democrat will advance into the general election against Rep. Sherman who is virtually guaranteed to advance from the June 2, 2026 jungle primary.
CA-45
Ex-US Rep. Michelle Steel (R) announced that she will not return for a re-match against freshman US Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange). After her defeat by a margin of just 563 votes from almost 316,000 cast ballots, the second closest race in the country, Ms. Steel filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Now saying she has “other goals,” Ms. Steel is abandoning a congressional comeback effort for next year.
The 45th District, which contains parts of Orange and Los Angeles Counties, carries a 52.2D – 45.9R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. Kamala Harris topped President Trump here, 49.3 – 47.8%.
IL-16
US Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Peoria), after indicating he was considering entering the 2026 Illinois Governor’s race, has instead decided to seek re-election to a seventh term in the US House. Holding one of only three Illinois Republican seats, Rep. LaHood will be a prohibitive favorite to win both renomination and re-election in 2026.
NV-1
State Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) announced that she will challenge veteran US Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) next year. Republicans have needed a stronger candidate to oppose the Congresswoman in a district that could become highly competitive. Dave’s Redistricting App rates the NV-1 partisan lean as 52.6D – 42.3R, but the presidential races have proven closer. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the district, but with only a 50.2 – 48.0% victory margin. In 2020, President Biden won the seat with a 53.2 – 44.7% spread. Rep. Titus will be favored for re-election, but this is a contest that could draw national attention.
NY-1
Air Traffic Controller and Army National Guard Black Hawk helicopter pilot Chris Gallant (D) announced his intention to compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge two-term US Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County). In his two congressional races, Rep. LaLota recorded a pair of 55% victories. Assuming the district remains in its current configuration, the Congressman will again be a clear favorite for re-election.
REDISTRICTING
The Texas legislative situation intensifies as state House Democrats en masse flew to other places in order to break the legislative quorum, thus freezing the Speaker from calling the House to order. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) then petitioned the state Supreme Court to declare Democratic leader Gene Wu (D-Houston), the individual that organized the flight, as “abandoning” his district, and therefore asked the court to declare the seat vacant.
Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) then set a Friday deadline for all to return to the chamber, or he would seek a court determination to declare all of the departing members’ seats vacant. The special session ends on August 20th. Gov. Abbott has the power to call an unlimited number of 30-day special sessions, so he is expected to begin another if this session ends without completing the entire special agenda.
GOVERNOR
Alaska
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), in what could be an off-the-cuff response to a reporter’s question, indicated that she is considering entering the open Governor’s race next year. A crowded field is forming on both sides, but obviously Sen. Murkowski would become a key competitor if she were to run. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
California
Diamond Resorts International time share founder Stephen Cloobeck (D) joined the growing field for the 2026 open Governor’s campaign. Mr. Cloobeck began by issuing attack statements against his new opponents, and in particular toward ex-US Rep. Katie Porter (D). Over 70 individuals have announced their intention to enter the statewide jungle primary. It remains to be seen just how many qualify for the ballot. It is certain, however, that the June 2, 2026, primary field will be large. Regardless of percentage attained and party affiliation, the top two finishers will advance into the general election.
Maine
Businessman Ben Midgley, the former long-time president of the Planet Fitness national gym company, announced that he will enter what is becoming a crowded open gubernatorial field in both parties. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term but not ruling out a challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R).
In addition to Mr. Midgley, state Sen. Jim Libby (R-Cumberland), former Assistant US Secretary of State Bobby Charles, businessman Jonathan Bush, real estate developer David Jones, University of Maine Trustee Owen McCarthy, and Paris Town Supervisor Robert Wessels, appear to be the major Republican candidates.
For the Democrats, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), businessman Angus King III, son of US Sen. Angus King (I), and former state Senate President Troy Jackson are the major contenders. The eventual Democratic nominee will be favored to hold the position.
South Carolina
As expected, US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) announced that she will compete in the open Governor’s race next year. Also in the GOP race is four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran US Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), Lt. Governor Paula Evette, US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who declared last week, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg). Incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Tennessee
As has been expected for months, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) this week announced that she will enter her state’s open Governor’s race, and the political road appears clear for an easy victory. Incumbent Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Upon her election, Ms. Blackburn would become the 51st Governor and the first female chief executive in the Volunteer State’s long history. Tennessee became the nation’s 16th state, officially admitted to the Union in 1796.
She must first battle US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) who, at this point, is the only other official Republican gubernatorial primary entry. With her strong electoral record and being a fervent Trump supporter, it is hard to see a scenario where she fails to claim the nomination. With Democratic strength at its nadir in the state, it also becomes challenging to see how she would have difficulty in the general election.
STATE AND LOCAL
Georgia Attorney General
Former state House Minority Leader Bob Trammell (D) announced his candidacy for the open Attorney General’s position during the week. Republican state Senators Bill Cowsert (R-Athens) and Brian Strickland (R-McDonough) are battling for the Republican nomination. Incumbent Attorney General Chris Carr (R) is running for Governor. Expect a close open seat general election battle for this office.
Kansas Attorney General: 2022 Attorney General nominee Chris Mann (D) announced he will return to seek a re-match with incumbent AG Kris Kobach (R). Three years ago, Mr. Kobach won a close 51-49% open general election.
Mr. Kobach has been controversial over the years especially when losing the 2018 open gubernatorial election to current Gov. Laura Kelly (D). Speculation was that Kobach would again enter the Governor’s race, but there is no recent indication that he will do so. Still, he can expect to see a competitive re-election battle for Attorney General next November.
Detroit Mayor
The Detroit mayoral jungle primary election was held on August 5, and two Democrats advanced into the November general election. City Council President Mary Sheffield exceeded the 50% threshold in the first election, but under the Detroit city procedure one cannot win outright even with majority support. Therefore, she advances into an open November general election against second place finisher Solomon Kinloch, a well-known local pastor.
The field featured nine total candidates, including retired former Detroit Police Chief James Craig who was running as a Republican. Incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan (I) is not seeking a fourth term in order to run for Governor.
Seattle Mayor
In what will be a general election of far left candidates, community organizer Katie Wilson (D) placed first in the August 5 primary election with Mayor Bruce Harrell (D) finishing a close second among the eight candidates. Neither reached the majority support mark of 50%, as both finished in the high 40s. The general election will be highly competitive.
