SENATE
Montana
Former Sen. Jon Tester (D), who lost his seat after three terms to now Sen. Tim Sheehy (R) in November (53-45%), said he will not return in 2026 to challenge Sen. Steve Daines (R). The Senator, who as then-chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, was an instrumental figure in recruiting Sheehy that led to Tester’s defeat. Mr. Tester said he believes “Democrats make this mistake too often; we try to recycle candidates.”
New Hampshire
Former Massachusetts US Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate nominee Scott Brown (R) announced this week that he will launch another attempted political comeback. He will enter the Republican primary for the New Hampshire open Senate seat. Mr. Brown is favored to win the party nomination, but against consensus Democratic candidate US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), it will be a considerable challenge for him to do better than the 48-51% showing he made against now-retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) eleven years ago or President Trump’s identical 48-51% finish last November.
Texas
Democrats now have a Lone Star State Senate candidate. Retired astronaut Terry Virts (D) announced his candidacy with attacks directed more toward GOP challenger and Attorney General Ken Paxton rather than incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R). For his part, Sen. Cornyn who has been trailing Paxton in every poll, for the first time indicated he might step aside if he could be assured that another Republican contender would deny Mr. Paxton the nomination.
On the Democratic side, in addition to Mr. Virts, former Congressmen Colin Allred, the 2024 Democratic Senate nominee, and Beto O’Rourke, the 2018 Senate and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, are also confirming having continued interest in entering the Senate race.
HOUSE
GA-1
Jim Kingston, son of former Georgia Congressman Jack Kingston (R), announced that he will compete in the open 1st District Republican primary next year for the seat his father held for 22 years, from 1993 through 2015. Jack Kingston left the House to run unsuccessfully for US Senate in the 2014 election. Jim Kingston, an insurance broker, joins four others in the budding Republican primary campaign, including two local county commissioners. Six-term incumbent Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) is a candidate in the current US Senate election.
IA-1
A new internal Democratic poll finds newly announced candidate Christina Bohannan (D), who has twice run for Congress, leading US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) if the election were today. Public Policy Polling surveyed the 1st District for the House Majority PAC (6/18-19; 555 IA-1 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found the challenger’s edge to be 43-39% over the three-term Republican incumbent. Rep. Miller-Meeks, who scored only a 48.4 – 48.2% victory over Ms. Bohannan last November, posts an upside-down favorability rating of 32:46% positive to negative according to this poll result.
MI-7
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink (D) announced that she will challenge freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte/Lansing) in next year’s congressional contest. Mr. Barrett a former state Senator, won the open seat race in 2024 to replace then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D), who was elected to the Senate. Next year’s 7th District race will be highly competitive and is one of the key national congressional races that will decide the next House majority.
NH-1
Ex-state Sen. Tom Sherman announced he will not enter the open 1st Congressional District Democratic primary and has instead endorsed former Portsmouth City Councilmember Stefany Shaheen, daughter of US Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), for the party nomination. Mr. Sherman has not, however, ruled out challenging Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) next year.
NJ-2
Ousted USAID official Bayly Winder (D) announced that she will enter the 2026 Democratic primary to challenge four-term GOP Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis Township/ Atlantic City). In November, Mr. Van Drew, who was originally elected as a Democrat but later changed parties has averaged 56.3% of the vote in his three runs as a Republican.
OH-9
2024 congressional nominee and ex-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R), who lost to veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), 48.3 – 47.6% last November, announced that he will return for a rematch next year. Also declaring is state Rep. Josh Williams (R-Sylvania Township). Because Ohio state law forces further redistricting when a high level of bipartisan legislative support is not attained, means the Buckeye State congressional map must be redrawn for 2026 and beyond.
In 2021, the current map did not receive 3/5 support in each legislative chamber meaning that the map could only be used in the 2022 and 2024 elections. A new map could make the 9th District that voted 53-46% for President Trump even more Republican since Rep. Kaptur still won a 22nd term despite a substantial victory margin for her opposite party at the top of the ticket.
TX-23
Wealthy conservative Texas rancher Susan Storey Rubio announced that she will challenge three-term US Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) in the sprawling 23rd Congressional District that stretches from San Antonio all the way to El Paso. Considering Ms. Rubio’s ability to self-fund and already casting Rep. Gonzales as a “spineless moderate” suggests that this may be a March primary challenge worth watching.
TX-28
Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina (R) announced that he is forming a congressional exploratory committee to assess his chances of winning both the Republican congressional primary and a general election against veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo).
Webb County, which houses the city of Laredo, is the largest population entity in the 28th CD just slightly ahead of the Bexar County (San Antonio) portion. Already in the Republican primary is former Congresswoman Mayra Flores who is moving into this district from the 34th CD (Brownsville) where she was elected in a special election, but defeated in two subsequent campaigns in a redistricted TX-34 that was made more Democratic.
Clearly, the 28th will feature both a competitive Republican primary on March 3 and a hotly contested general election. Last November, Rep. Cuellar, despite being under federal indictment, defeated retired Navy officer Jay Furman (R) 53-47% while President Trump was carrying the CD over Kamala Harris with a 53-46% margin. Mr. Furman is also returning for another run.
VA-7
Republicans have recruited a strong candidate to challenge freshman Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Dale City) next year. State Sen. Tara Durant (R-Fredericksburg) announced this week that she will run for Congress.
While the 7th District is politically marginal (Harris over Trump, 50-48; Vindman, 51-48%), the seat is reported to have the largest percentage of federal employees of any Virginia CD (14% of the district population). Clearly, the Administration’s move to reduce the size of the government employee base will be front and center for this campaign. Rep. Vindman is also one of the top Democratic congressional fundraisers. For the 2024 election cycle, he raised just over $18 million for his campaign effort.
REDISTRICTING
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court announced late this week that the justices will not hear the Democrats’ redistricting cases pertaining to the state’s congressional map. The action came as a surprise, as most political observers were expecting the plan to be redrawn. It does appear that Ohio and Texas will soon re-draw their maps, however. With the US Supreme Court expected to imminently release their ruling on the Louisiana redistricting case, it is possible that the decision will also force further reconstruction of the Bayou State plan.
GOVERNOR
Arkansas
State Sen. Fred Love (D-Mabelvale) announced that he will compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R). Sen. Love is the first prominent Democrat to declare for Governor. Incumbent Sanders is on the ballot for a second term and is a prohibitive favorite for re-election.
Illinois
Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), originally elected in 2018, announced that he will seek a third term next year. He is unlikely to draw a major Democratic opponent, but Republican US Rep. Darren LaHood (Peoria) confirms that he is considering launching a campaign for Governor. Though the Illinois economy is in a downturn and the state is one of the places losing the most population, Gov. Pritzker will be favored to secure a third term.
Maine
State Senator Rick Bennett (R-Oxford) announced a bid for Governor, but as an Independent candidate even though he serves in the legislature as a Republican. Mr. Bennett was first elected to the state House of Representatives in 1990 where he served two terms. In 1996, he won a state Senate seat and rose to become president of the chamber. He served his eight year term-limit and then became chairman of the Maine Republican Party. He returned to the Senate in the 2020 election.
Sen. Bennett is the first candidate to declare as an Independent for the 2026 Governor’s race. The Maine electorate, as they have done repeatedly for Senator and former Governor Angus King (I), will from time to time elect Independent candidates. Therefore, Sen. Bennett’s move to force a three-way general election may pay dividends.
South Carolina
Four-term state Attorney General Alan Wilson (R), son of US Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), announced his candidacy for the open 2026 South Carolina Governor’s race. The move had been expected. US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), immediately launched negative comments about Mr. Wilson calling him “soft on crime” in his current role. She is expected to oppose the Attorney General for the gubernatorial nomination. Also entering the Governor’s race is state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg).
Incumbent Governor Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third full term. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored to win the general election.
STATE AND LOCAL
Buffalo, NY
State Senator Sean Ryan (D-Buffalo), running on a platform to “unite Buffalonians,” defeated Acting Mayor Christopher Scanlon (D), the former City Council President. Mr. Ryan’s Democratic primary victory margin was 47-35%. Mr. Scanlon is reported to be looking for options to enter the general election as an Independent or minor party candidate. Former Erie County Assistant District Attorney James Gardner was unopposed in the Republican primary. Sen. Ryan will be favored in the November vote.
New York City
After leading in polling for most of the race until falling behind just days before the election, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo conceded the New York City Democratic mayoral primary to state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, who ran as a Democratic Socialist.
Mr. Cuomo, however, is reportedly contemplating entering the general election potentially as an Independent or the nominee of a minor party, which he has the opportunity of doing. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is already in the general election running as an Independent.
Assemblyman Mamdani is pledging to make bus fares free, community college tuition-free, providing childcare for children five years of age and under, freezing rents on municipal housing, and wanting the city to operate grocery stores to drive down prices. Most economists, however, don’t believe implementing all of these proposals will be fiscally or practically possible.
With New York City Democrats holding a 65-24% registration advantage over Independents and minor party registrants – Republicans are only at 11% – it is clear that Mamdani will be very difficult to overtake in the November 2025 election.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
