A Senate Review – Part II

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Today concludes our two-part series covering the latest in competitive US Senate campaigns. This edition examines developing contests in Michigan through Virginia. 

Yesterday’s announcement that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will not run for the Senate certainly changes the political picture in that particular state, and we will devote tomorrow’s column to that evolving campaign.

In this report, if a state is not listed, it means the incumbent is currently expected to seek re-election and face little in the way of credible opposition.

Michigan 

The 2024 open Wolverine State US Senate contest surprisingly proved to be the tightest in the nation, so a second open contest in successive election cycles will draw much greater early national attention and resources. Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers, despite being badly outspent, lost to then-US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just 19,006 votes statewide. He returns to again battle for a Senate seat; this time left open because Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring. 

Mr. Rogers should be a clear favorite for the Republican nomination, though US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) says he is considering entering the race. For the Democrats, US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are announced candidates. Term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel is also a potential Democratic candidate. Count on this race being considered a toss-up all the way through the November 4, 2026, election day.

Minnesota 

Sen. Tina Smith (D) is not seeking a second six-year term, which opens the door for a highly competitive Democratic primary. In the race are Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. Others may join, but count on this race advancing through the party endorsing convention to the August primary ballot. 

Republicans, at this point, do not have a credible announced candidate, which means it is highly likely that Sen. Smith’s successor will be the Democratic primary winner.

New Hampshire

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) will retire at the end of the current Congress, and US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is well on his way to becoming a consensus Democratic candidate long before next year’s candidate filing deadline. Already publicly endorsing Mr. Pappas are a host of New Hampshire Democratic leaders including Sen. Shaheen; the state’s junior US Senator, Maggie Hassan; US Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua); former four-term Governor John Lynch; and ex-US Rep. Annie Kuster. 

Republicans lost their best candidate option when former four-term Governor Chris Sununu declined to run. Ex-Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who lost to Sen. Shaheen in 2014 on a 51-48% count, looks to be running again and could well win the nomination. Without Sununu in the race, however, the edge goes to the Democrats, particularly with Rep. Pappas performing so well early.

North Carolina  

This is yet another situation where party leaders are trying to convince a sitting or former Governor to challenge the opposite party’s incumbent Senator. Ex-Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 under his state’s election law, remains uncommitted about challenging Sen. Thom Tillis (R). 

In the race for the Democrats, however, is former US Rep. Wiley Nickel who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map. 

Originally, Mr. Nickel said he would stand aside for Mr. Cooper, but does not appear to be saying such any longer. This could be a clue that the former Governor will not run for Senate to instead prepare for a 2028 presidential campaign. 

The nature of North Carolina politics suggests that the 2026 Senate race will again be close, irrespective of who's running. The state traditionally features tight statewide elections in almost every cycle. Consider this race a toss-up, particularly if Mr. Cooper decides to run, though former Congressman Nickel will prove an able candidate.

Ohio 

Like in Florida, Ohio will host a special election to fill the balance of a current US Senate term. After then-Sen. J.D. Vance was elected Vice President, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) to the Senate seat. Mr. Husted now must run in 2026 to fill the balance of the six-year term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint. 

Last week, former US Representative and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan (D) announced he would not challenge Sen. Husted, but still expresses interest in the Governor’s race. 

Ohio is another state where potential candidates, in this case Democrats, are frozen in time waiting for a decision from another. Former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat to Bernie Moreno (R) in November, is a potential candidate for both Senate and Governor. Until Mr. Brown decides where to run, if anywhere at all, expect little movement among other prospective Democratic candidates.

South Carolina

Talk of a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has died down since both US Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) are looking toward an open Governor’s race. Sen. Graham, showing almost $16 million in his campaign account, also is dissuading potential challengers from both parties. At this point, expect Sen. Graham to have an easy road to re-election.

South Dakota 

Recently, Sen. Mike Rounds (R) stated that he would not enter the open Governor’s race, which would be an attempt to regain a political position he once held. Curiously, he did not announce a bid for re-election in declining to run for Governor. 

Mr. Rounds is still expected to stand for election to the Senate in 2026, and with his state featuring a Governor’s race that could yield a major Republican primary battle, the two-term federal incumbent is expected to breeze through another re-election next year.

Texas 

Several recent polls show incumbent Sen. John Cornyn badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced Republican primary competitor. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets, with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate, even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth, but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Ex-Congressman and failed presidential, US Senate and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. US Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility, as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

Virginia 

Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for a fourth term, and unless Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) decides to challenge him, the Democratic incumbent should have little trouble again winning re-election. If the Governor does run, the contest will prove close, but the Senator would still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win the general election.

Gov. Youngkin is another of the state chief executives said to have presidential aspirations, so it remains to be seen if he is looking toward launching a national campaign, running for the Senate, or simply retiring from elective politics. Virginia is the only state in the country that limits its Governors to one term, so Mr. Youngkin’s future political options are narrow.

Editor's note:

HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.

Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.

We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.

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Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty