Again, Cornyn Trails

Can he neutralize his RINO image?

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The Houston Chronicle is running a story about a new poll that Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale released to an HC reporter about the upcoming Texas Senate Republican primary. 

The ballot test again shows incumbent Sen. John Cornyn badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced primary competitor. Mr. Parscale was a consultant for Mr. Paxton’s 2022 successful re-election campaign.

The survey release includes sketchy methodological information, however. The firm conducting the poll is not identified and the sampling period is listed as only “mid-April.” The respondent universe consists of 605 “voters.” It is also unclear whether the respondents were questioned through live interview, an interactive voice response system, text, or online website.

In any event, the ballot test finds Mr. Paxton leading Sen. Cornyn, 50-33%. Even if President Trump were to endorse Sen. Cornyn, the incumbent still does not forge ahead, though this poll shows he would close to within a 44-38% deficit. While the spreads seem head scratching, they are in relative concurrence with other released polls of the race, even one conducted as far back as 2022.

In early March, Lake Research Associates, a Democratic firm, polled the Texas Republican electorate and found Paxton topping Cornyn, 38-27%. In early February, the Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm released their results that are similar to the Parscale poll’s current figures, 53-28%. Victory Insights January poll found a 42-34% Paxton lead. The 2022 reference was from a CWS Research survey taken in early July of that year. The then-hypothetical Cornyn-Paxton ballot test yielded a 51-31% advantage for Mr. Paxton.

The obvious common theme is that Sen. Cornyn trails in every publicly released survey over a long period. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition. 

Mr. Paxton, however, is a flawed candidate. He was impeached in the Republican state House of Representatives in 2023 but not convicted in a trial before the state Senate. Yet, the proceeding brought to the forefront bribery accusations and the acknowledgment of an extra-marital affair. Therefore, Paxton would be an easy target for the eventual Democratic nominee in a general election.

Another Paxton problem could be fundraising. A great deal of his state campaign resources come from large donations, which are legal under Texas election law. Raising money for a statewide race in the nation’s second largest domain in increments not to exceed $3,500 for the nomination election means Paxton will have a harder time raising the funds necessary to run a strong primary campaign. 

Both Sen. Cornyn and Rep. Hunt have obviously raised sizable amounts under the federal guidelines. The current Federal Election Commission disclosure reports find Sen. Cornyn holding almost $5.6 million in his campaign account, while Rep. Hunt has over $2.8 million. Mr. Paxton did not file a first quarter report because he was not yet an official candidate.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Former Congressman and failed presidential, US Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. US Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26th if no candidate secures majority support. 

Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, we can expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.  

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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