An Early Redistricting Cycle

Precursor to 2026: The Stakes of Realigning Efforts in the Badger, Buckeye and Lone Star States

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It appears we will see at least three states soon begin a mid-decade redistricting effort for various reasons.

It has been long assumed that the Wisconsin state Supreme Court justices would redraw the congressional boundaries before the 2026 election. After the Democrats secured their high court majority before the 2024 election, the members reconfigured the state Assembly and Senate as a way to “rectify the Republican majority’s partisan gerrymander.” Surprisingly, the court did not follow suit to simultaneously change the congressional district map. It is probable they will soon take such action.

It is believed that a majority of the court justices, as at least two publicly stated when campaigning for their position, see the current 6R-2D congressional map as constituting a partisan gerrymander. It is expected that the justices will assign a special master to draw districts that would bring the partisan ratio to 4-4, which could mean Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) might lose their seats while threatening the very tight US House Republican majority.

The state of Ohio is also preparing for a redraw, but not because of a partisan gerrymandering. Under Ohio election law, plans must pass both houses of the legislature with 3/5 of the voting members. Because the 2021 congressional plan was adopted with only majority support, the map would only be in effect for two succeeding elections, 2022 and 2024. Therefore, in order to comply with state law, the Ohio redistricting commission, comprised of elected officials, and the legislature must again embark upon the redistricting process. 

Republicans hold a 10-5 advantage in the congressional delegation with two of the Democratic seats, District 9 (Rep. Marcy Kaptur; 48.3 – 47.6% 2024 election result) and District 13 (Rep. Emilia Sykes; 51.1 – 48.9%), being very tight from a partisan perspective.  The Republican weakest showing in the last election came from Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River; 51.1 – 36.1%). Excluding Rep. Miller’s 51% tally, the remaining nine Republicans averaged 65.2% of the vote. 

With Republicans generally in charge of the redistricting process, expect moves to make the Kaptur and Sykes’ districts more Republican.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has called a special legislative session to begin July 21.  Because Texas only has a short 140-day legislative session every other year, it has been commonplace after the last few sessions to bring the members back into an extra session to complete unfinished business. 

Under Texas law, the Governor has sole authority to call a special session, but the legislative period can only consume 30 days. It is possible for the Governor to call additional sessions if more time is needed. Also important, it is only the Governor who sets the agenda for the legislative session. It is widely believed that Mr. Abbott will add congressional redistricting to this particular legislative special session.

Each of the three states has a unique reason for conducting a mid-decade redistricting session. In Texas’ case, it is because excessive growth has made several districts severely overpopulated.

Using the US Census Bureau’s mid-decade population estimates, Texas has grown in population by a 7.2% rate since the 2020 census was concluded. During this same time period, the national growth rate is 2.6 percent. The Texas number translates into over 1.2 million more people living in the state since the last Census. Should this trend continue, the Texas population will swell by over 4 million more people by 2030 when compared to 2020. 

Therefore, the growth numbers account for the early estimated national reapportionment calculations that suggest Texas could gain an additional four congressional seats for the next decade. Hence, the Governor and legislative leaders will again redistrict to more equitably distribute the state’s major raw number growth figure throughout its current 38 congressional districts.

The Texas congressional delegation stands at 25R-13D; therefore, it would not be surprising to see the GOP dominated legislature attempt to expand the Republican position within the current congressional delegation through the redistricting session.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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