Bipartisan Headaches

The Challenges Facing Both Parties in 2026

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It appears that both parties have political problems to overcome in order to achieve success in the 2026 congressional midterm elections. 

Earlier this month, we produced a Political Update that found Democratic voter registration is down in all 31 states that record a voter’s political affiliation. To review, this compares with the Republican registration percentage to the whole increasing in 18 of these states, while the Independent or Non-Affiliated (Declined to State in California) option rose in a dozen of the 31 party reg domains. 

Since the Democratic downturn appears at least partially related to a reduction in their traditional share of younger and new voters, this is a serious trend that the party leaders must address.

The Republicans also have a potential enthusiasm, or perhaps an organizational, problem that could be a warning sign for the 2026 midterm elections. 

The Down Ballot political blog mathematicians have been researching the special elections held after the 2024 presidential contest and have illustrated that Republican performance in almost every instance has significantly underperformed the baseline that President Trump set last November.

So far in 2025, there have been 29 special elections for state legislature (27) and the US House of Representatives (2) in 12 states. In two instances, state Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates converted traditional GOP districts and seats where, according to The Down Ballot calculations, the Republican candidate underperformed the combined Donald Trump-Kamala Harris total by a net 25 (Iowa) and 16 (Pennsylvania) percentage points. 

The mean average Republican underperformance factor in all 29 special election districts is 16.4% under Trump’s performance against Kamala Harris, and 12.2% below his standing against President Biden in 2020.

Earlier this week, on June 10, six state legislative special elections were held – three in Florida, two in Oklahoma, and one in Massachusetts. The result pattern was mixed. In Oklahoma, though in a strongly Democratic district, the Republican nominee, again according to The Down Ballot statisticians, ran a whopping net 50 percentage points behind the combined Trump vs. Harris 2024 recorded vote.  

Looking at the other Oklahoma state House special election, the Republican candidate won the seat, but fell below the Trump vs. Harris combined percentage by a net 13 points.

Yet, in a Massachusetts state Senate special election, the Republican candidate overperformed, losing the election by just 21 votes – which proved a net five percentage point increase over the 2024 presidential result. 

Republican candidates held all three seats the party risked in the June 10 Florida special elections – one in the state Senate and two in the state House. Yet, they again fell below the Trump Republican performance standard, this time by a net nine, eleven and 21 percentage points.

The question that must be asked in response to this data is whether the Republican candidates are underperforming or is President Trump simply an overachiever. The answer could be a combination of the two scenarios. What has become clear, however, is that a Trump voter is not necessarily a Republican partisan, and many are not habitual voters. This means a significant number of individuals within the Trump coalition are simply unlikely to participate in a special election, even though they come to the polls when the President himself is on the ballot. 

Furthermore, it is also unlikely that the Republican special election underperformance is a result of people changing their allegiance as a protest to the Trump Administration.  Rather, it is probable that the most prolific reason for the GOP’s lesser 2025 track record is failing to convince enough of their coalition to return to the polls for the irregular and under-publicized elections. 

Pertaining to the 2026 congressional midterms, both parties must return to basics in order to energize their coalitions. Democrats must find a solution to their young and new voter problem, while Republicans must develop better messaging to convince the casual Trump voter to cast a ballot to help their President’s allies. 

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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