GA-Sen: Carter In; Greene Out

Georgia race key to determining the next Senate majority. 

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Now that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has publicly declined to seek the Peach State’s Republican US Senate nomination, the political dominoes are beginning to fall.

Soon after the Kemp announcement at the end of last week, US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), who said he would run statewide if Gov. Kemp did not, announced that he will compete for the party’s Senate nomination. Quickly after the Carter declaration, US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) released a written social media statement indicating that she will not enter the Senate campaign.

Despite Ms. Greene’s decision, a crowded Republican field is still expected to develop. Reps. Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) and Mike Collins (R-Jackson) are considered possible Republican candidates, as are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and Insurance Commissioner John King. 

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has also “not closed the door” on running for the Senate, but he is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race if he decides to run for a different statewide position. Attorney General Chris Carr (R) long ago announced his campaign for Governor.

The eventual GOP winner will face first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). The party nomination may not be decided until late June of next year, however, if the multi-candidate May Republican primary evolves into a runoff election between the top two finishers should no one secure majority support. 

The Senator has raised almost $32 million during his four-plus years in office and has $11 million in his campaign account. Clearly, the Georgia Senate race will be one of the most hard-fought and expensive campaigns of the 2026 election cycle.

Since President Trump first won here in 2016, the Georgia races, for the most part, have yielded very close results. Previously, the state was reliably Republican, but demographic changes principally due to large numbers of African Americans moving from other southern states to the Atlanta metro area for better job opportunities, according to a Pew Research study, have made the Democrats much more competitive.  Thus, the state is now viewed as politically purple, meaning their elections routinely fall into the toss-up category.

In 2016, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, 50.7 – 45.6%. Two years later, then-Secretary of State Brian Kemp won a close 50.2 – 48.8% gubernatorial victory against Democrat Stacey Abrams. Four years after Mr. Trump’s initial close Georgia victory, he would lose to Joe Biden in an official margin of 11,779 votes statewide, or just under three-tenths of one percentage point. 

In that same 2020 election, Mr. Ossoff would score a one-point victory over Sen. David Perdue (R), and Rev. Rafael Warnock (D) would win a two-point special election decision over appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler. 

The irregular election was necessary to fill the balance of the term after veteran Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) had passed away, and Ms. Loeffler was appointed to serve until an election was held. Both Senate seats, however, were decided in close post-election runoffs since Georgia is one of only three states that require majority victories in general elections.

Republicans would rebound to a degree in 2022 when Gov. Kemp scored a more decisive 53-46% victory over Ms. Abrams. Sen. Warnock, however, again recorded a two-point run-off victory to secure a six-year term, this time against former University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker (R) who was routinely characterized as a weak candidate. In 2024, the Georgia electorate again turned to Trump in another tight finish, 50.7 – 48.5%, this time over Vice President Kamala Harris.

The recent electoral history sets the stage for what should be another very close 2026 general election. Early polling suggested that Gov. Kemp, if he were to become a candidate, would have enjoyed a small lead over Sen. Ossoff. Sans Kemp, the incumbent begins with more substantial survey margins against any other prospective Republican opponent.

Without Kemp, the Georgia Senate contest won’t have the national political star power that the national media would have focused upon during the midterm election cycle, but this race still has the potential of becoming highly competitive with a different Republican nominee. 

Despite the change in status, the Georgia Senate race will remain as one of the keys to determining the size of the next Senate majority.  

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Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty