Rep. Sherrill Leading NJ Gov Polls

Stays ahead in 'tightly bunched' field

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The open 2025 New Jersey Governor’s race could have a direct effect upon the US House of Representatives. 

Both Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) are battling for their party’s statewide nomination.  If either wins the primary and subsequent general election, another Democratic vacancy will occur in the House thus forcing a special election to be called.

A series of recent New Jersey gubernatorial polls find Rep. Sherrill leading a crowded open Democratic field, but her advantage is small. Three polls have been released in the immediate past with noted Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group in the unusual situation of conducting surveys for two candidates (Gottheimer and Sherrill) in the same race.

The most recent statewide poll, from New Jersey’s Rutgers University (released 4/25; conducted 4/1-10; 966 NJ register-red voters; 556 NJ likely Democratic primary voters; online), sees Rep. Sherrill leading her Democratic opponents 17-12-10-9-9-7% against Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Montclair Mayor and NJ Education Association president Sean Spiller, Rep. Gottheimer, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, respectively.

This result does not greatly differ from the Global Strategy Group survey for the Gottheimer campaign. That poll (4/1-3; 900 NJ likely Democratic primary voters) showed a more tightly bunched field but with Ms. Sherrill continuing to place first. In this result, Ms. Sherrill edge is 19-14-13-11-11-5% over Gottheimer, Fulop, Baraka, Spiller, and Sweeney.

The Sherrill campaign conducted its Global Strategy Group survey just after the Gottheimer study was completed. The results (4/6-8; 600 NJ likely Democratic primary voters) differed significantly from the other published results and are distinctly different from their own poll for Rep. Gottheimer conducted just days before.

According to the GSG poll for the Sherrill campaign, their candidate leads 25-15-13-13-12-6%, over Rep. Gottheimer, Mayors Fulop and Baraka, Mr. Spiller, and former Sen. Sweeney. A bit surprisingly, the Sherrill and Gottheimer surveys, again with the same research firm conducting both studies and just days apart, arrive at substantially different results.

While Ms. Sherrill consistently leads, her margins can certainly be overcome especially since she has topped 20% in only her own internal poll. On the other hand, the Congresswoman has spent less in terms of advertising dollars than her major opponents to date but still maintains a consistent edge.

The New Jersey primary is scheduled for June 10th, so this campaign will shortly hit its full stride. As is the case in virtually all crowded primaries, whichever candidate has the most fervent support and the best organization to turn out their vote typically wins. 

As mentioned above, should either Reps. Sherrill or Gottheimer advance to the general election and defeat likely GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, the former state legislator who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close win in 2021, the Democrats would be down another House vote for several months until a special election can be conducted. 

Both the Gottheimer and Sherrill seats could become competitive in a special election.  Mr. Gottheimer’s 5th CD and Ms. Sherrill’s 11th District both lie in northern New Jersey and share a common border. 

The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations find Democrats holding the advantage, 53.0D – 45.3R in the 5th, and 54.7D – 43.7R in the 11th, so either district in an open situation would potentially be in play during a special election campaign.

Editor's note:

HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

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Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty