Sherrill & Ciattarelli Win NJ Primaries

Key Victories Set the Stage for New Jersey's General Election

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New Jersey US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and former state Assemblyman and 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli easily won their respective Democratic and Republican primaries last evening setting up an interesting open Governor’s race in the Autumn. The eventual general election winner will succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) at the beginning of 2026.

Various surveys had projected each of these candidates leading in their primary campaigns throughout the entire election cycle. With no polling numbers released in over a month, however, and Rep. Sherrill finding herself under heavy attack from her Democratic opponents, predicting the end result was not as clear cut as one might have expected.

In the end, Rep. Sherrill defeated Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Sean Spiller, the Montclair Mayor and teachers’ union president, and former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney with a victory percentage exceeding 34% among the six candidates.

On the Republican side, Mr. Ciattarelli had an easier time topping radio talk show host Bill Spadea, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Plainfield), and two minor contenders. The Ciattarelli margin was over 67%, which greatly exceeded the early polling projections.

Turnout favored the Democrats, which isn’t surprising since the primary was more competitive, featured a large number of candidates, and the party has almost a 13 point voter registration advantage in the state. In 2017, the last time we saw a seriously contested Democratic gubernatorial primary, a total of 503,219 people voted. In the current election, it appears the Democratic turnout factor could exceed 860,000 votes, which would calculate to a huge 72% turnout increase. 

For the Republicans, 339,033 individuals participated in the 2021 competitive primary that Mr. Ciattarelli won. It appears yesterday’s GOP final turnout count has exceeded 500,000 voters, which is an approximate 48% increase compared to their previous competitive primary participation factor.      

In terms of fundraising, the aggregate Democratic dollar amount gathered was approximately $42 million at the end of May among the six candidates. The fundraising totals were evenly spread, with the top three fundraisers, Sherrill, Fulop and Gottheimer, each obtaining more than $9 million in campaign contributions. Mr. Sweeney raised a surprisingly high $8+ million, and Mayor Baraka posted a credible $6.4 million. Mr. Spiller’s percentage vote total was very favorable considering he raised less than $1 million.

The Republican aggregate end of May dollar figure was just under $19 million, with almost half of that total ($9.25 million) going to Mr. Ciattarelli. Both Sen. Bramnick and Mr. Spadea broke the $4 million mark with the state legislator posting just under $5 million and the radio talk show host recording a campaign receipt total of $4.5 million. 

Democratic endorsements were split among all of the candidates. Rep. Sherrill won ten county Democratic Party endorsements, all from the northern part of the state; Mr. Sweeney six counties, all in New Jersey’s southern portion; and Rep. Gottheimer earned two northern NJ county endorsements from within the 5th Congressional District that he represents. The official Somerset County party organization jointly endorsed all the candidates.

The most well-known Democratic officeholders, Gov. Murphy and Sens. Cory Booker and Andy Kim, remained neutral, as did the Atlantic and Ocean county Democratic Party organizations. They will certainly help lead the Democratic charge in the general election, however.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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