The Early House Vulnerables

At-risk seats to keep an eye on

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There will be a considerable number of contested US House seats in the 2026 election cycle, and the watch list begins with the members who won either election or re-election in a district where the electorate voted for the opposite party’s presidential candidate.

There are 16 such districts; thirteen that President Trump carried while a Democrat won the House race, and three opposites – that is, districts where Kamala Harris proved victorious, but a Republican clinched the House campaign.

Today, we take a glimpse at the early races in the ticket splitting seats where a clear general election campaign is already developing. 

In terms of the Trump performance, the President carried 230 of the 435 US House districts in the 2024 election cycle. It is not until we reach Trump’s 197th strongest seat do we see a Democrat win in a CD where the President prevailed. 

Though Mr. Trump scored a 53-44% victory in Maine’s 2nd District, US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) survived a close re-election battle with then-state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R) with 50.3% of the vote.

In 2026, it appears that Mr. Golden will face former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R) in what promises to be a national congressional campaign. Rep. Golden has won four consecutive elections in the 2nd CD, but Gov. LePage has also carried the seat in all three of his gubernatorial runs.

Turning to northern California’s 13th District, Republican incumbent John Duarte fell to Democrat Adam Gray by just 187 votes even with President Trump recording a victory margin of almost six percentage points. In 2026, Republicans are coalescing around Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez, who earned an endorsement from former Rep. Duarte when the defeated member announced that he would not return for a re-match. 

North Carolina’s 1st District was significantly changed in the 2023 redistricting plan and, therefore, will again be competitive in 2026. GOP candidate Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill/Rocky Mount) to a 49.5 – 47.8% re-election victory, accepted a Trump Administration appointment and will not run for Congress next year. 

The Buckhout decision sets the stage for Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson (R) to make a return appearance and become an early consensus candidate. Mr. Roberson ran for the seat in 2022 but lost the Republican primary.

Texas veteran US Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) survived his re-election campaign against a weak Republican candidate even with a federal indictment hanging over his head and President Trump scoring a 53.2 – 45.9% victory within the district confines. 

Former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R), who twice lost to Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in the neighboring 34th District, announced that she will switch districts next year to challenge Rep. Cuellar. With a changing district and Flores as the GOP nominee (though she faces a Republican primary with, so far, only minor opponents), this district will attract more national attention in 2026.

The most pro-Kamala Harris seat to elect a Republican Congressman is found in Omaha, Nebraska. While Ms. Harris clinched the 2nd District with a 51.6 – 47.0% victory margin, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) was able to secure a fifth term with a 50.9% win.  Mr. Bacon says he is undecided about whether to seek re-election in 2026. 

Democrats are looking for another candidate to replace twice-defeated former state Senator Tony Vargas, so we could see much change coming here in preparation for next year’s election. Regardless of who becomes the eventual party nominees, NE-2 will host a hotly contested race and is most likely the top Democratic national conversion opportunity.

New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) is contemplating a gubernatorial run, and a crowd of Democrats are lining up for what promises to be a bruising nomination battle.  Six Democrats, two of whom are local elected officials, have already announced their candidacies. The Republican leadership and President Trump are encouraging Rep. Lawler to remain in the 17th District campaign.

Moving southward from New York to Pennsylvania, Democratic leaders want to replace twice-defeated 1st District nominee Ashley Ehasz, who lost to Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) 56-44% last November even though Kamala Harris was carrying the seat with a slight 49.7 to 49.4% margin. Look for Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie to become a consensus Democratic candidate.

The other races in this category are still developing. The remaining Democratic incumbents who won Trump districts and can expect tough re-election campaigns are:

Josh Harder (CA-9)

Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-8)

Susie Lee (NV-3)

Nellie Pou (NJ-9)

Gabe Vasquez (NM-2)

Tom Suozzi (NY-3)

Marcy Kaptur (OH-9)

Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34)

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3)

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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