Two Polls, One Surprise

Trouble for Dems in the Garden State?

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Two gubernatorial political surveys have just been released. The first came from Colorado with predictable results and the other, testing the New Jersey electorate, produced an unexpected tally.

New Jersey

Newly nominated Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign publicized its internal post-primary National Research poll (6/10-11; 600 NJ likely general election voters; live interview & text) that projected US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), the now official Democratic gubernatorial nominee, leading their general election battle by only a 45-42% margin.

The bigger surprise is found in the crosstabs. While both candidates are doing as well as expected within their respective party bases (Ciattarelli, 82-5% among Republicans; Sherrill, 81-10% among Democrats), it is the Republican who holds an unanticipated edge among the non-affiliated voters. 

According to the National Research data, Ciattarelli would lead Sherrill within this cell by a 44-36% clip. Historically, polling a New Jersey non-affiliated/Independent voter segment would typically reveal a strong lead for the Democratic candidate.

Providing more evidence of what possibly appears as a developing political and demographic realignment, the Democratic nominee has the advantage among the voter cell defined as “Upper Class” (48-35%) and the “Upper Middle Class” (50-40%), while the Republican nominee breaks even within the “Working/Middle Class” (43-43%) cell. 

Another troubling point for the Democrats, and likely a reflection of how term-limited incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is viewed, the sampling universe believes New Jersey is on the “wrong track” by a whopping 72-14% count.

The National Research poll results, however, are at odds with a different survey conducted before the primary election. Survey USA tested the New Jersey electorate (5/28-30; 576 NJ likely general election voters; online internet panel) and found Rep. Sherrill leading Mr. Ciattarelli by a substantial 51-38% result. 

Assuming both studies are accurate within the polling margin of error, a suggested conclusion points to Ciattarelli being the candidate receiving a post-primary support boost. While Rep. Sherrill received just under 34% of the vote over a field of five other candidates from a larger turnout universe, Mr. Ciattarelli exceeded all polling predictions in recording a victory percentage almost touching 68 opposite four Republican primary contenders.

Colorado

The other released poll, from Colorado US Senator Michael Bennet’s gubernatorial campaign, finds the three-plus term federal incumbent posting a large lead over his Democratic primary opponent, state Attorney General Phil Weiser. 

The Global Strategy Group conducted the poll for the Bennet campaign (6/9-11; 600 CO likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) and projects their client leading AG Weiser 53-22% and possessing, also unsurprisingly, a very large name identification advantage.

In terms of personal favorability within the Democratic polling sample, Sen. Bennet recorded a 74:13 positive to negative ratio, while AG Reiser also posted a respectable but much smaller 45:7 index. A total of 87% responded that they are totally familiar with Sen. Bennet, while only 52% of the sample logged a similar recognition of Mr. Weiser.

Michael Bennet was first appointed to the Senate in 2009 to replace then-Sen. Ken Salazar (D) who resigned to become US Interior Secretary in the Obama Administration.  The new Senator went onto defeat then-Colorado Republican Party chairman Ken Buck in a close 48-46% result in the 2010 general election. Sen. Bennet scored a closer than expected 50-44% re-election victory in 2016, and a more substantial 56-41% win six years later. 

As the Colorado electorate continues to move leftward, the 2026 gubernatorial general election will feature the eventual Democratic nominee as a prohibitive favorite.  Therefore, the chances of Sen. Bennet winning both the Democratic gubernatorial primary and general election, at this early point in the 2026 election cycle, appear extremely high.

The prospects also suggest that the most interesting point about the Colorado gubernatorial general election may well be the speculation over who Mr. Bennet would appoint to replace himself in the US Senate. Assuming he wins the Governorship, whomever Mr. Bennet appoints in 2027 would serve the balance of the current term and be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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