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PRESIDENT
NE-2
The 2nd District of Nebraska has an important role in the presidential race because it can deliver an electoral vote to a Democratic nominee in a state that will assuredly vote Republican. A recently-released New York Times / Siena College poll finds Vice President Harris expanding her earlier lead over former President Trump in the district to nine percentage points, 51-42%.
It is important to remember that the 2nd District was made more Republican in a 2021 redistricting and no longer has the boundaries that yielded President Biden a 22,000-vote margin four years ago. Still, the polling data suggests a clear Harris win, and time is growing short for the GOP to turn things around – the Nebraska early voting period begins Oct. 7 and carries through to Election Day.
North Carolina
Now that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's (R) open campaign for Governor has self-destructed, both sides are attempting to see if other Republican candidates on the Tar Heel State ballot will suffer collateral damage – most specifically regarding the presidential race. It is fast becoming clear that North Carolina is likely the most important state on the board for Donald Trump. It is probable that he would not have a legitimate chance to win the general election if the former President fails to carry North Carolina.
East Carolina University this week released the results of their latest survey this week; they showed Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leading Mr. Robinson by a whopping 50-33%, but former President Trump still maintained a slight lead over Vice President Harris, 49-47%.
Since the presidential race is always close in the Tar Heel State, the fact that Trump leads even as Robinson is getting badly beaten suggests that the GOP fallout may be limited to the gubernatorial campaign.
SENATE
Nebraska
This week we saw yet another survey showing Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in political trouble opposite Independent Dan Osborn, who now has united support from the Nebraska Democratic establishment. The new Bullfinch Group poll, taken for the Independent Center, is the fifth consecutive publicly-released survey to find the race falling within the margin of error.
The Bullfinch analysis is the second to project a lead for Mr. Osborn, 47-42% in this case. The 400-size sample is small for a three-congressional district state, so the error factor is high. Regardless of such, the data is consistently showing that the Nebraska race, even with no Democratic candidate, is surprisingly close.
North Dakota
Lake Partners Research, polling for Democrat Katrina Christiansen, released the results of their latest study, which gives their client a fighting chance against first term Sen. Kevin Cramer (R). The ballot test finds the Senator holding a 49-40% lead, but the most troubling number for Mr. Cramer is his 38-44% upside-down mark with Independents.
Conversely, WPA Intelligence – which went into the field at a slightly later time than Lake Partners, but covered the same sample size – arrives at a wholly different tally. This survey (for the North Dakota News Cooperative) posts the Senator to a whopping 51-29% advantage. We will see which pollster is the more accurate at election time, but the WPA Intelligence result is much closer to recent voter history.
Ohio
Though recent studies have shown the Ohio Senate race narrowing, they have produced varying results, despite the fact that their sampling periods were similar. A comparison of different data weighting methodology used by two pollsters – the New York Times / Siena College vs. PollFair – explains the variation.
According to NYT/Siena, the Ohio partisan formula breaks 29% D, 34% R, 36% I, which translates into a R+5 advantage. PollFair, however, weights the same electorate differently: 31% D, 39% R, 30% I, which would yield a R+8 GOP advantage. It is these types of statistical calculations that largely account for most polling discrepancies.
Wisconsin
The Wisconsin contest between Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and businessman Eric Hovde (R) has been heavily polled, and the most recent surveys find Sen. Baldwin's lead ranging from as little as one point to as many as seven. Thus far in 2024, a total of 39 polls of this race have been published, and Sen. Baldwin led in 38 of them, with the 39th survey showing a tie between the two candidates.
The most recent data, however, does see a tightening of the race. Ten polls were released from Sept. 16-30, and while the Senator led in each of them, eight of the ten studies showed her margin at four or fewer points. In fact, in six of these eight, her lead was three points or less. Should this pattern continue well into October, more attention will be paid to this campaign.
RCP Ratings
Examining the Real Clear Politics US Senate rating chart, we see that the Toss-Up category is overly-broad; so much so, in fact, that four of the six rated Toss-Up campaigns should be recategorized. The six that RCP rates as Toss-Ups are the Arizona and Michigan open races, and the incumbent contests for Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI).
The only races where the empirical and financial data could conceivably support a Toss-Up rating are the Michigan and Ohio contests, and even they at least tilt toward the Democratic candidate. For the Arizona, Scott, Casey, and Baldwin campaigns, it appears that recent polling data, resource imbalance, and historical voter performance have not been given proper consideration.
Accounting for the strong GOP gains in Florida over the past few years, the Scott race should be in the 'Lean Republican' column. There is no data to suggest that Sens. Casey and Baldwin should not be considered favorites for re-election, and Rep. Gallego has enjoyed a clear lead in the Arizona race since the beginning of the general election cycle. All four contests should be in the 'Lean Democratic' column.
Independent Expenditures
We are now seeing the "rubber hit the road" in terms of campaign spending, and the Republican Senate Leadership Fund just announced media buys of more than $67 million targeted for the Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin races.
The largest expenditure, according to The Down Ballot political blog – some $28 million – will be spent trying to unseat Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA).
A total of $22 million, meanwhile, will be spent on the Michigan airwaves. The financial imbalance between the two senatorial candidates is significant – incumbent Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) enjoys a 5:1 fundraising advantage over her challenger, ex-Rep. Mike Rogers (R) – so the outside organization is spending heavily to bring the GOP nominee into financial parity.
The final $17 million is headed to Wisconsin, where polling is suggesting that the Republican challenge to Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is getting more serious.
HOUSE
AZ-7
Though he is reportedly prevailing in his battle against lung cancer, veteran Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) announced this week that the succeeding term he will undoubtedly win in November will be his last. This makes him the first incumbent to make a retirement announcement for the 2026 election cycle.
First elected in 2002, Rep. Grijalva is the former chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee and will likely assume that role once again if the Democrats capture the House majority.
The 7th District stretches almost the entire width of the Arizona-Mexico border region, beginning in Pirtleville and moving west all the way to Yuma. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as D+27, so Rep. Grijalva's eventual successor will also be a Democrat.
CA-22
California's 22nd District, located in the state's Central Valley, is one of the most Democratic seats that sends a Republican to Washington. The latest survey projects that we will once again see a very tight finish. CA-22 is one of four California Democratic seats held by a Republican, and each of these districts will factor greatly into determining the next House majority.
Emerson College, polling for Nexstar, sees Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) and former state Assemblyman and 2022 general election finalist Rudy Salas (D) tied at 45% apiece. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+10, while The Down Ballot statistical group ranks the seat as the most vulnerable district in the Republican Conference. In 2022, Rep. Valadao defeated Mr. Salas, 51.5 – 48.5%.
CA-45
Funded by individuals with cryptocurrency interests, the Fairshake Super PAC backs candidates of both parties who support alternative currency objectives; recently, it has seen a change in how some of its California money is being spent. Reportedly, Fairshake has shifted approximately $1 million in advertising money from Rep. Mike Garcia's (R-Santa Clarita) northern Los Angeles County district to that of Orange County GOP Rep. Michelle Steel.
Recent polling has given Democratic challenger Derek Tran a slight lead over Rep. Steel, but within the polling margin of error. The same is happening in the Garcia race, however, which makes the Fairshake move a curious one.
CO-8
In 2021, the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission drew the state's newly-awarded 8th Congressional District – a seat that lies north and northeast of Denver and includes some of the city's bedroom communities – as a political toss-up. The latest US House survey suggests that the electorate is performing as intended.
Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and two Denver television stations, sees freshman US Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) and state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) falling into a flat tie, 44-44%.
NE-2
The recent New York Times / Siena College poll that posted Vice President Harris to a 51-42% advantage in Nebraska's 2nd District also finds Democratic state Senator Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) leading US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion).
Though Rep. Bacon fares considerably better than former President Trump, he would still trail his Democratic rival – a man he defeated 53-47% in 2022 – by a 49-46% margin. Once again, this is a seriously competitive race that promises a closer finish than 2022, considering the current polling data and what is sure to be a much larger presidential voter turnout.
Spending
As reported in The Down Ballot political blog, the House Democrats' main independent expenditure group, the House Majority PAC, announced this week over $13 million in additional ad buys for emerging close districts. This suggests that polling showing closing margins is also appearing in Democratic internal polling.
The increased media investments are occurring in CA-9 (Rep. Josh Harder; D-Stockton), CA-47 (open seat: Scott Baugh (R) vs. state Sen. Dave Min (D)), CT-5 (Rep. Jahana Hayes; D-Wolcott), IA-1 (Mariannette Miller-Meeks; R-Le Claire), and OH-13 (Rep. Emilia Sykes; D-Akron). All but one, IA-1, are "protect" campaigns for the Democratic brain trust.
GOVERNOR
New Hampshire
Following a mid-September release from the University of New Hampshire, which found Democratic former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig leading ex-US Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) by one percentage point, a survey result released late this week finds the latter woman re-taking the polling lead.
The new St. Anselm College poll projects a three-point lead for Ms. Ayotte, 47-44%, in the nation's only seriously competitive gubernatorial campaign. Regardless of who is leading in which poll, both data points suggest a very close race and a result within the polling margin of error. Currently, therefore, the most reasonable conclusion is that both candidates have a chance to win this political contest.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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