IA-1: A Close Re-match Predicted

Eyes on a nail-biting redux in the Hawkeye State

If you value articles like this, sign up for our daily email newsletter and support us with a donation. 

Iowa’s southeastern 1st Congressional District delivered the third closest US House race in 2024, and the two principals are officially returning for a re-match. Late last week, former state Representative Christina Bohannan (D) announced that she would return for a third attempt at unseating US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire).

The Congresswoman first won her seat in 2020 after several tries with a six-vote victory over former state Senator and Lt. Governor nominee Rita Hart (D) from the previous 2nd District.

Iowa runs a unique redistricting system, basically ceding map drawing responsibility to a legislative committee staff who designs the districts based upon a mathematical algorithm. The legislature then has the right to approve or reject the map without amendment. 

In the 2021 redistricting cycle, the legislature turned down the original map, which led to the present draw. The final plan forced Reps. Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/ Cedar Rapids) to switch districts, but both Republican members have been able to hold their new CDs.

The 1st District covers 20 complete counties and is anchored in the Quad Cities area, which features the Davenport and Bettendorf municipalities in Scott County on the Iowa side of the Iowa-Illinois border. The remaining entities that comprise the four-city group lie in the Land of Lincoln. 

The seat then stretches west as far as the city of Indianola, which lies due south of Iowa’s capital city of Des Moines. The other significant population centers are Iowa City, which houses the University of Iowa, and the Burlington, Clinton and Newton communities. 

IA-1 is politically marginal. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 50.0R – 46.7D partisan lean. President Trump carried the district with a 53.5 – 45.0% victory margin over Kamala Harris. In 2020, Mr. Trump defeated President Biden here, 50.5 – 47.6%.

Therefore, Rep. Miller-Meeks’ 799-vote victory margin, translating into a percentage spread of 48.4 – 48.2, was an underperformance in relation to President Trump’s total, but also when compared to the partisan lean. In 2022, however, and again opposite Ms. Bohannan, Rep. Miller-Meeks scored a 52.6 – 42.9% victory, which is more consistent with other Republican margins.

The 2024 election cycle displayed obvious weakness for Rep. Miller-Meeks not only in the general election, but also in the Republican primary. In the June vote, Rep. Miller-Meeks managed only a 56% victory against a GOP primary opponent who literally spent no money. 

The 2026 IA-1 race will again be close, and Ms. Miller-Meeks must work to strengthen her Republican base, since the Trump coalition, or MAGA faction, as a group apparently does not believe her to be solidly conservative. 

Rep. Miller-Meeks’ 2024 Republican opponent, advertising executive David Pautsch, returns for a re-match and pledges to run a serious campaign in the 2026 primary although his $8,170 raised in the first quarter of 2025 doesn’t provide evidence of a budding competitive effort. 

Seeing the 2nd Quarter totals for both candidates – the period closes June 30 with a filing deadline of July 15 – will be interesting. Obviously, Mr. Pautsch must significantly improve his fundraising for his candidacy to become credible, and it will be worth seeing if Rep. Miller-Meeks continues to do well on the fundraising trail. In the 1st Quarter, she reported a strong $1.02 million in receipts with a cash-on-hand figure of $1.09 million. 

Clearly, the IA-1 contest is a congressional race with national majority implications since the House partisan divide after the 2026 election is again projected to be very close. Expect a very expensive general election congressional campaign in southeast Iowa and another close finish.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.

Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty