Weekly Roundup – June 21, 2025

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SENATE

Florida

Josh Weil (D), the teacher who lost to freshman US Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) 57-43% in the April 1 special election despite raising over $15 million for the campaign, announced that he will challenge appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) next year. 

Mr. Weil attracted national attention for his special election contest to succeed then-Rep. Mike Waltz (R), who at the time was President Trump’s National Security Advisor, but he actually underperformed when compared to the Democratic House vote total in 2018 when the 6th District seat was last open. Considering Florida’s recent electoral history, Sen. Moody is favored in the succeeding election even though polling will likely project a close race.

Illinois

US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi’s (D-Schaumburg) US Senate campaign released the results of his recent internal GBAO Strategies statewide poll (6/5-10; 1,200 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text). The ballot test posts the Congressman to a 32-19-14% advantage over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s (D-IL) endorsements, and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). The Democratic primary winner will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the general election.

Louisiana 

Bayou State US Senator Bill Cassidy has a new Republican opponent. State Senator Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia) announced that he will enter the 2026 Republican Senate primary. Sen. Cassidy is one of seven Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump in 2020 and is vulnerable for renomination. Already in the race is State Treasurer John Fleming. 

Additionally, the Louisiana Governor and legislature changed state election law. For federal races the jungle primary system is eschewed, and a partisan structure is reimposed. The change will likely play to Cassidy’s detriment. Therefore, the primary challenge is more serious because the Senator must now stand for a Republican primary on April 18, 2026, with a runoff election on May 30 if no candidate secures majority support in the first vote. 

HOUSE

AZ-1 

Jimmy McCain, son of the late Sen. John McCain (R), said this week he will not enter the Democratic field to challenge Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in Arizona’s politically marginal 1st Congressional District. In the race are 2024 Democratic nominee and former state Representative Amish Shah, who held Rep. Schweikert to a 52-48% re-election victory, and ex-TV news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galan-Woods, along with four others. The general election here is expected to hold toss-up status throughout the campaign cycle.

FL-19 

Former New York US Rep. Chris Collins and ex-Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis, both former elected officials from other states, have each separately announced their intention to compete in the open southwest Florida congressional primary. Candidates with an actual Florida political history are also expected to enter. FL-19 is a safely Republican district (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 62.5R – 36.1D), so the eventual GOP nominee will be a lock to win the general election. Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is running for Governor.

IA-1

Ex-state Representative Christina Bohannan (D), who has twice run for Congress and held Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) to a 799-vote win in 2024, announced that she will return for a third run in 2026. Ms. Bohannan will have little trouble securing the Democratic nomination, and we can expect to see another tight general election in this district where Rep. Miller-Meeks has run under the Republican benchmark. President Trump posted a 2024 victory margin of 53.5 – 45.0% here over Kamala Harris, while Rep. Miller-Meeks recorded only 48.4%.

MO-2 

Retired St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright said during the week that he will not enter the Democratic primary to challenge US Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin). Democratic leaders had been attempting to recruit Mr. Wainwright even though he has never said whether he considers himself a Democrat. Missouri is one of 19 states where political party affiliation is not a stated voter registration condition.

TN-7 

With Tennessee US Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) just announcing that he will resign from the House after the “Big Beautiful Bill” is enacted, we already see candidate action in Tennessee’s 7th District. 

Democrats look ready to compete for the seat despite what appear to be favorable Republican retention odds. Former Nashville Mayor and 2024 congressional nominee Megan Barry indicates she will consider entering the special election Democratic field.  State Rep. Vincent Dixie (D-Nashville) says he is virtually certain to become a candidate.  State Rep. Bo Mitchell (D-Nashville) is also a potential congressional contender.

Two prominent Republicans have already declared they will run for the soon-to-be vacated congressional seat. State General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps announced he is resigning his cabinet position to enter the congressional field, and Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight is also formulating a congressional campaign. Therefore, it appears we will see competitive special election primaries in both parties. Gov. Bill Lee (R) will have ten days to set the special election calendar once Rep. Green officially resigns. 

GOVERNOR

Colorado 

The Global Strategy Group released a Democratic primary poll conducted for Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D) gubernatorial campaign (6/9-11; 600 CO likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) and projects the three-plus term federal incumbent leading Attorney General Phil Weiser (D) 53-22%, along with enjoying a very large Bennet name identification advantage.

In terms of personal favorability within the Democratic polling sample, Sen. Bennet recorded a 74:13 positive to negative ratio, while AG Reiser also recorded a respectable 45:7 index. A resounding 87% responded that they are totally familiar with Sen. Bennet, while only 52% of the sample recorded a similar recognition of Mr. Weiser. As the Colorado electorate continues to move leftward, the 2026 gubernatorial general election will make the eventual Democratic nominee a prohibitive favorite.

Kansas 

Democrats have their first announced gubernatorial candidate to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D) as the party’s 2026 nominee. State Sen. Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) declared her gubernatorial candidacy late last week. 

Though Gov. Kelly has won two elections as the state chief executive, the eventual GOP nominee will be favored in an open seat contest since the state’s electorate typically votes Republican. For the GOP, former Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Scott Schwab are the leading contenders.

Michigan 

Former state House Speaker Tom Leonard (R) announced that he will enter the open Republican gubernatorial primary. He last ran statewide in 2022 where he came within a 49-46% margin of unseating Attorney General Dana Nessel (D). Mr. Leonard joins a Republican field that includes US Representative and former statewide candidate John James (R-Farmington Hills), ex-Attorney General Mike Cox, and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw). 

On the Democratic side, the announced candidates are Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

New Jersey 

Newly nominated Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign released its internal post-primary National Research poll (6/10-11; 600 NJ likely general election voters; live interview & text) that projected US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), the now official Democratic gubernatorial nominee, leading the general election battle by only a 45-42% margin.

The National Research poll results are at odds with a different survey conducted before the primary election. Survey USA tested the New Jersey electorate (5/28-30; 576 NJ likely general election voters; online internet panel) and found Rep. Sherrill leading Mr. Ciattarelli by a substantial 51-38% result. Assuming both studies are accurate within the polling margin of error, the conclusion is that Ciattarelli is the candidate receiving a support boost coming from the primary election.

Virginia

Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger won their respective Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries as unopposed candidates. 

A pre-primary poll from the co/efficient research firm conducted for the Founders Insight Public Policy Research organization (6/8-10; 1,127 VA likely voters) sees Ms. Spanberger leading Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears by a 46-43% margin. Seven credible polls have been released for the VA race and six find Ms. Spanberger leading by an average of four percentage points. The other poll found the two candidates locked in a tie. The November 2025 election is expected to become highly competitive.

STATE AND LOCAL

New York City 

An internal campaign poll from Public Policy Polling (for the Mamdani campaign; 6/6-7; 573 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani taking the first ballot lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 35-31%, in the city’s Democratic primary scheduled for June 23rd. This is the first time a published poll has not shown Cuomo leading. 

Conversely, a Cuomo campaign poll from Expedition Strategies (6/3-7; 600 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) sees Mr. Cuomo holding a substantial 42-30% lead over Mamdani. The Data for Progress polling organization carried the questionnaire through eight RCV rounds and projected Cuomo prevailing over Mamdani, 51-49%. 

The most recent release, from Marist College (6/9-12; 1,350 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) also projects Mr. Cuomo with the lead, 43-31%, in this case.

The Ranked Choice Voting system is used for this campaign. The pollsters find Mr. Cuomo eventually winning the primary but it will likely take six to seven rounds to determine a winner. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is running as an Independent.

Virginia 

State Sen. Ghazala Hashimi (D-Richmond) edged Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and state Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach) by a 27.4 – 26.6 – 26.3% margin to win the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor on June 17. In November, Sen. Hashimi will face Republican radio talk show host John Reid.

In the Attorney General’s primary, we saw another close finish.  Former state Delegate and 2023 Attorney General candidate Jay Jones defeated Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, 51-49%, to win the Democratic nomination.  Mr. Jones will now challenge incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R). 

All Virginia statewide races, including the gubernatorial battle between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), project close finishes.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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