New Texas Data

Polls show Sen. Cornyn fares well against Dem candidates, but ...

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A new YouGov poll conducted for the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University produces mixed results for veteran GOP Sen. John Cornyn who has largely seen poor polling data since the year began.

The YouGov survey (5/9-19; 1,200 TX registered voters; online) projects Sen. Cornyn trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 34-27% on the Republican primary ballot test, but finds him leading prospective Senate candidate Wesley Hunt, the two-term 38th District Congressman who represents a district wholly contained within Harris County. In the three-way YouGov survey, Mr. Hunt draws 15% support.

While the Senator still trails AG Paxton beyond the polling margin of error, this ballot test is definitely an improvement with regard to his standing within the Texas Republican Party. The last three publicly released GOP primary polls found Mr. Paxton at or over 50% when directly paired with Sen. Cornyn.

The better news for the Senator is that he fares well in general election pairings with the Democrats who are considering entering the statewide contest. 

Tested against former US Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Ted Cruz (R), Cornyn would lead 48-44%. Opposite former Congressman, ex-statewide and 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke, the Cornyn advantage is 49-43%. If US Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) were to become a Senate candidate and win the party nomination, Sen. Cornyn would top him by seven percentage points, 48-41%.

While Messrs. Paxton and Hunt also top the Democrats in every iteration, Sen. Cornyn fares best. The other point of note is to acknowledge that Texas Republicans typically under-poll on ballot tests. 

For example, in 2024 President Trump averaged just under a seven-point lead in polls from September 1 through the election according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, but won the state by almost 14 percentage points. Sen. Cruz was running an average of four points ahead of then-Congressman Allred in the same polls from September 1 through the election, but recorded a winning margin of almost nine percentage points.

The bad news for Sen. Cornyn comes when comparing the candidates’ favorability indexes. Within a sample cell of Republican primary voters, and in polling the at-large electorate, Sen. Cornyn posts the most negative numbers. President Trump scores best within the Republican sample with an 85:14 positive to negative ratio. Gov. Greg Abbott is next with a 78:20 score, just ahead of Sen. Cruz’s 77:21. AG Paxton records a 68:22 total, while Sen. Cornyn only reaches a 57:34 figure within his own party.

The general electorate indexes are similar. Here, Sen. Cornyn is one of three political figures who are not rated with positive favorability scores. The four-term incumbent is viewed positively by only 39% of the general election polling sample versus 47% who have an unfavorable impression of him. 

Former Congressman O’Rourke is also in negative territory with an upside down 43:49% ratio. Mr. Paxton’s index is dead even with 44% responding positively and 44% expressing a negative view. Rep. Castro posts a 34:27 favorable ratio, while Rep. Hunt is also in positive territory, but with a lower name identification. His favorability index is 28:19.

Part of the reason Sen. Cornyn fails to score better among Republicans is the impression that he is not supremely supportive of President Trump, along with his record on gun control issues. Many believe his defense of the 2nd Amendment is not strong enough. 

To improve his standing with the party faithful, Sen. Cornyn has recently contracted President Trump’s pollster, Fabrizio Lee & Associates, while former Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita has just joined the leadership team for a Super PAC supporting the Senator.  

Sen. Cornyn is making these types of moves to hopefully keep President Trump neutral in the race, knowing that an endorsement for Paxton could doom his renomination effort. According to the aforementioned YouGov poll, 49% of the Republican primary voters are more likely to vote for a candidate that President Trump endorses.

Mr. Paxton was an early supporter of Mr. Trump, but the White House is also keenly aware of the Attorney General’s weaker standing before the general electorate due to negative publicity involving bribery accusations, an impeachment in the state House of Representatives, and having a well-known extramarital affair, though he remains married to state Sen. Angela Paxton (R-Allen/Plano). 

Considering Texas’ early March 3 primary date, we can expect the Lone Star State’s Senate race to attract the most attention of any campaign within the early election cycle.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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