NY-Gov Poll: Hochul and Stefanik in Dead Heat

Major gubernatorial campaign in the Empire State on the horizon

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A political survey that the New York Post recently covered found US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) drawing into a virtual general election tie with New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D) according to the study’s ballot test result.

No major Republican or Democratic candidate with the exception of the incumbent has yet announced for Governor. Yet, the data consistently shows that Rep. Stefanik, who was nominated as US Ambassador to the United Nations but withdrawn when it became evident that taking her from the House could have potentially cost the Republicans effective control of the legislative chamber, fares the best of any potential GOP contender against the politically vulnerable Governor.

Ms. Hochul also could face a contested Democratic primary. Both Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) have indicated they are considering launching a primary challenge to the Governor.

The co/efficient survey research firm conducted their New York poll in early May (5/1-2; 1,163 NY likely voters; live interview & text) and the results showed Gov. Hochul holding only a 43-42% lead over Rep. Stefanik, meaning a virtual dead heat. In a hypothetical Republican primary, co/efficient sees Ms. Stefanik leading US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R), 56-9-8%. The Hochul job approval number stood at 44:46% favorable to unfavorable.

Siena College also released a poll conducted about two weeks later than the co/efficient study (5/12-15; 805 NY registered voters; live interview & text). The Hochul job approval score was in the same realm as co/efficient found, though slightly more positive. The Siena job approval index found the Governor in positive territory at 50:46%, though her personal approval is wholly consistent with the co/efficient job approval score of 44:46% positive to negative.

Though Siena did not test general election pairings, the pollsters did ask whether the respondent believes Gov. Hochul should be replaced. A total of 82% of Republicans and 64% of Independents said they prefer “someone else” to be the state’s next Governor.  Even among Democrats, her standing is tepid. Only a bare majority of 51% said they are “prepared to re-elect her.”

Siena asked primary ballot test questions for both parties. While co/efficient found Rep. Stefanik holding a large lead in the GOP field, as referenced above, Siena sees a more competitive contest. According to this poll, Ms. Stefanik’s lead over Rep. Lawler and County Executive Blakeman was 35-22-11%, respectively. 

On the Democratic side, Gov. Hochul maintains a substantial lead, but she remains below 50% even on the primary ballot test. Siena’s latest results project her holding a 46-12-10% advantage over Messrs. Delgado and Torres. 

While this margin is wide, it does suggest that her facing only one opponent could lead to an aggressive primary challenge. If both enter, Hochul would very likely win because the anti-incumbent vote would be split. Since New York recognizes plurality elections – New York City is using the Ranked Choice Voting system, but the state has not adopted the procedure – Hochul would prevail as the first place finisher. 

At this point, it appears likely that Rep. Stefanik will enter the Governor’s race since the early signs surrounding her proposed candidacy are relatively positive. Such is not the case for Rep. Lawler. He, therefore, will likely remain in the House race and enter what promises to be a hotly contested national congressional re-election campaign.

Without Lawler in the Governor’s race, it is possible that Mr. Blakeman would run and attempt to upset Stefanik in a one-on-one campaign, even though the early indicators heavily favor the Congresswoman for the party nomination. 

On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Delgado and Rep. Torres would likely need to form an alliance, with only one challenging Gov. Hochul, for either to have a chance. If both enter the race, the prognostication would greatly favor a Hochul renomination. If one of the two challenges Gov. Hochul, such would yield a competitive Democratic primary campaign to be decided in late June of 2026. 

Regardless of the nomination outcomes for both parties, it is probable that we will see a major general election New York gubernatorial campaign develop. While the state’s voting history clearly points to another Democratic victory in November of 2026, this race is likely to become much more interesting than would a typical New York statewide campaign.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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