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Writer's pictureJim Ellis

Political Roundup – November 1, 2024


Editor's note:

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EARLY VOTING


Early Gender: Analysts Missing the Point 


Multiple analyses of early-vote totals indicate that women are voting in greater numbers than men. However, while the raw numbers denote such, the historical trends suggest something slightly different.  


When comparing the gender participation segments from the previous presidential year of 2020 to this year, women are up just two-tenths of one percent, while men are up one-half of one percent. This data comes from the Target Early / TargetSmart organization, and is based on more than 55 million early votes cast for the 2024 election.


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Compared to the 2022 midterm, women are up slightly more than one-half a point, while men are down by that same amount. Perhaps the more significant finding is the increase in rural voting, which appears evident around the country, as well as the decrease detected in urban voter participation.


PRESIDENT


Pennsylvania: Swinging Toward Trump 


A total of six current polls from five different Keystone State pollsters all find former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania ballot test results. The range is relatively wide.  


The Oct. 27-30 Echelon Insights survey posts Mr. Trump to a 51-46% count on the multi-candidate ballot. Diverging farthest from the Echelon results is an Oct. 24-28 Fox News poll, which suggests the two candidates are tied with 48% apiece.  


Viewed together, the two are a good example of how different pollsters can arrive at significantly different results, even when testing the same race during the same relative time frame. With so many polls showing many different outcomes regarding the various campaigns, it is now time to sit back and let the actual votes determine the final result.


SENATE


Arizona: Closer Than Expected 


Earlier this week, Souls and Liberty covered a new poll of the open US Senate race in Arizona showing former news anchor Kari Lake (R) running slightly ahead of Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix). The Oct. 26-28 Data Orbital poll forecast Ms. Lake holding a one-point edge over Rep. Gallego.

  

Now, we see another survey arriving at the same conclusion. AtlasIntel has just released the results of its Oct. 30-31 Arizona poll, and they show Ms. Lake holding a small one-point lead.


An earlier AtlastIntel poll, taken Oct. 25-29, saw the opposite result, showing Rep. Gallego leading by one percentage point.


Meanwhile, an Oct. 28-30 Noble Predictive Insights survey found Rep. Gallego with a four-point edge over Ms. Lake.


Though all polls, pre-October, gave Rep. Gallego substantial leads, there is now significant data showing a closing of the race. While Gallego is still the likely winner, this race may now join a couple of the Arizona House races in political overtime.


Michigan: Mirror Images 


Two recent surveys of the Michigan electorate have produced similar, yet contrasting, conclusions.


An Oct. 28-29 Mitchell Research and Communications poll, taken for the Michigan News Source, sees former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) leading Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), 49-47%.


Meanwhile, an Oct. 25-29 AtlasIntel survey finds Slotkin outpacing Rogers, 49-47%.


This is an excellent example of two professional pollsters testing the same electorate at the same time and arriving at the opposite conclusion. This makes us remember that polls give us a broad snapshot within a stated margin of error at the time a survey is conducted, and reminds us that surveys are meant to show trends over a long period, as opposed to who might be leading a campaign at a given time.


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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