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Writer's pictureJim Ellis

Political Roundup – September 18, 2024


SENATE


Maryland: Alsobrooks Continues to Lead 


Emerson College and The Hill newspaper have released the results of their latest Maryland US Senate survey. According to their figures, Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) again tops former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) by a spread beyond the polling margin of error – seven percentage points, or 49-42%.


Mr. Hogan, while still enjoying very strong personal favorability ratings even among Democrats, must overcome what will be one of the largest landslide victories for Kamala Harris of any state. Thus, seeing potentially a 30-point Democratic win at the top of the Maryland ballot makes it extremely difficult for any Republican to overcome such a wave in their down ballot elections.


Missouri: Shock Poll Released 


While the Missouri Senate race had been largely ignored for most of the year, we now see three polls released almost simultaneously. Yesterday, we covered a GQR survey for the Lucas Kunce (D) campaign, which produced a surprisingly close 50-46% margin in Sen. Josh Hawley's (R) favor.


Two more surveys followed, each with very different results. Change Research sees the Hawley lead at 46-41%. Meanwhile, Emerson College, polling for The Hill Newspaper, produced a much different result, posting Sen. Hawley to a twelve-point lead over Mr. Kunce, 52-40%.  


Based upon Missouri voting history within the past twelve years, Sen. Hawley still should be favored, but it is clear this race will be drawing increasing attention as Democrats attempt to expand the Senate map.


HOUSE


New Hampshire: Democrats Staked to Large Leads 


After the late Sept. 10 primary election, St. Anselm's College went into the field to test both New Hampshire US House seats – the eastern 1st District, featuring incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), and the open 2nd District, the seat from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring.


The St. Anselm's polls find Rep. Pappas leading former Executive Councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott (R) by twelve percentage points, 50-38%. In the 2nd District, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander, who was an easy Democratic primary winner, led Republican Lily Tang Williams by a similar 49-38% margin. At this point, Democrats appear primed to retain both of New Hampshire's congressional seats.


GOVERNOR


Ohio: 2026 Rumors Already Abound 


Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term in 2026, and already political observers are pointing to meetings and movements from potential candidates. 


Involving themselves in the Springfield, OH Haitian migrant controversy, both former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and ex-Rep. and 2018 US Senate candidate Jim Renacci (R) are scheduling meetings to encourage positive dialogue within the community. Both are considered potential Republican gubernatorial candidates.


Other potential candidates are Lt. Gov. John Husted (R) and Attorney General Dave Yost (R), along with Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Jennifer Brunner, Columbus Mayor Andy Ginther, and Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval.


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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