Redistricting Lawsuits Filed in Wisconsin

Democrat shenanigans endanger Reps. Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden

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The Down Ballot political blog is running a story indicating that two redistricting lawsuits have been filed against the Wisconsin congressional map. Changing the plan as the plaintiffs desire would likely lead to Republicans losing at least two members from the current delegation.

Redistricting was a focal point of state Supreme Court campaigns in the last two Wisconsin judicial election cycles. Democrats won the critical elections in 2023 and earlier this year to secure the liberal court majority.

Before the 2024 elections when Justice Janet Protasiewicz was elected, it appeared the court would redraw the congressional districts. Ms. Protasiewicz, running for the post in 2023, spoke repeatedly on the campaign trail about changing the congressional map.  Her election gave the Democrats the majority they needed to do so, but they surprisingly stopped short. While redrawing the state Senate and Assembly district borders, the court left the congressional districts untouched without explanation.

Some political observers theorize that the court played a partisan game with the congressional district issue. The thought was the majority wanted to shield Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), on the ballot in 2024, from facing a more difficult opponent such as US Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville). The Congressman had a multi-million dollar war chest that could have been wholly converted to a Senate campaign if his House district were made unwinnable for a Republican. 

If this was even part of the reason that the court did not address the congressional districts, it may have been a sound partisan move. Sen. Baldwin won re-election over GOP businessman Eric Hovde with just an eight-tenths of one percent margin.  Therefore, against a perceived more difficult opponent, the Senator could have easily lost. Thus, waiting an extra election cycle to redraw the federal plan may have paid the Democrats’ a dividend.

The principal argument for a redraw is the Republicans’ 6-2 majority in the Wisconsin congressional delegation. Democrats argue the map is a partisan gerrymander because Badger State elections often end with one party or the other winning races by one or two percentage points, or even less, as was the case for Sen. Baldwin in 2024. Partisan gerrymandering has been the subject of many cases, but it is still not fully determined whether a political party can, in effect, be considered a protected class.

A second lawsuit claims the districts have an uneven population and therefore need adjustment. This is an odd argument since all districts change throughout the course of a decade, thus every constructed political map is obsolete under this theory. This case, however, could allow the court to declare the map invalid without addressing the partisan gerrymandering issue.

It is most likely that the two most endangered Republicans under a redraw situation would be Reps. Steil and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) in the 1st and 3rd Districts, respectively.

The 1st CD lies in the far southeastern corner of Wisconsin bordering Illinois and Lake Michigan. It contains a small portion of Milwaukee County before moving south to annex Kenosha and Racine counties. It also contains parts of Rock and Walworth counties to the west. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean is 49.4R – 48.3D. President Trump carried the seat over Kamala Harris in 2024 with a 51.5 – 47.0% majority. Four years earlier, he topped President Biden 50.3 – 48.3%. 

District 3 lies in the southwestern part of the state anchored in the cities of La Crosse and Eau Claire. The 3rd is comprised of 14 Wisconsin counties and parts of five others.  The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean is 48.9D – 48.5R, making it one of the most politically even seats in the country. 

President Trump, however, outperformed the 3rd District stats in the last two elections, defeating Ms. Harris, 52.9 – 45.5%, and President Biden, 51.5 – 46.8 percent. Rep. Van Orden averaged 51.5% in his two victorious elections. Prior to the Republican winning two consecutive elections here, former US Rep. Ron Kind (D) represented the district for 13 consecutive terms.

Sitting in between these districts is Rep. Mark Pocan’s (D-Town of Vermont; Madison) 2nd CD. It is here where the region’s Democrats reside. This district’s partisan lean is 69.7D – 28.2R and houses the most liberal county in the state, Dane, which contains the capital city of Madison and provides the district its population anchor (575,347 residents).   

A possible boundary change would shift Democrats from Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-Milwaukee) safe Democratic 4th District and move them south to the 1st. Various Republican and Democratic voters would then be swapped between the 1st and 2nd. In order to feed more Democrats into the 3rd, we would likely see more Democrats shifted from the 2nd and swapped for Republican voters.

The trick for the Democratic map drawers is to shift enough Democrats into both the 1st and 3rd to unseat Steil and Van Orden, while at the same time keeping enough in District 2 to keep Rep. Pocan’s seat safe. This may prove an interesting balancing act, and chances are that either Steil or Van Orden, or possibly both, will still have a fighting chance of winning re-election. 

Assuming the court orders a congressional redraw in time for the 2026 election suggests Reps. Steil and Van Orden’s political circumstances will be far more difficult than what they face today. 

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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