Senate Happenings

FLA and NY to dominate Senate primaries in early part of the 2026 election cycle

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Democrats now have a credible US Senate candidate in Florida, and a new Illinois Democratic primary poll finds US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) expanding upon his early lead.

Florida

Josh Weil (D), who labeled himself “a badass teacher,” and subsequently lost to freshman Florida US Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) 57-43% in the April 1 special election, now returns to elective politics. Late this week, Mr. Weil announced that he will enter the US Senate race with the goal of opposing appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R), who will be on the federal ballot for the first time. 

Mr. Weil attracted national attention for his special election campaign to succeed then-Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL-6), with his national fundraising program that accumulated well over $15 million in campaign receipts. Polling suggested a close finish, and even a possible upset, but as we have seen in many Florida elections the pollsters often underestimate Republican voter strength.

In the end, Mr. Weil even failed to perform as well as a Democratic predecessor the last time the 6th District seat was open. While party nominee Nancy Soderberg garnered 44% of the vote against Mr. Waltz when he first won in 2018, Weil managed to only record 43% in voter support in his special election campaign effort. 

According to The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators, the Weil campaign’s actual spending on voter contact media during the April election was only in the $4 million realm because such a large percentage of his receipts went toward fundraising expenses and campaign overhead.

It remains to be seen if Mr. Weil can raise the kind of money he did for the special congressional race when his federal campaign was only one of two occurring nationally and news reports were suggesting an upset was possible. Additionally, Weil ran far to the left in the special election, which in the end didn’t work in the conservative 6th District and he won’t likely fare any better statewide with such a strategy.

Mr. Weil’s other major obstacle is the voter registration trends in the state. At the end of May, the latest Sunshine State registration figures give Republicans a 1.31 million voter advantage in partisan affiliation over Democrats.

Considering Florida’s recent electoral history, Sen. Moody is favored in the succeeding election, though it is clear that Mr. Weil looks to be the most credible Democrat coming forward to date. 

Illinois

US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi’s US Senate campaign late this week released the results of its recent internal GBAO Strategies statewide poll (6/5-10; 1,200 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text). 

The ballot test posts the Congressman to a 32-19-14% advantage over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s (D-IL) endorsements, and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). 

With Republicans not bringing forth a credible candidate to date, the March 17 Democratic plurality primary will also effectively determine the general election outcome, and the winner will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

The new research data reveals Krishnamoorthi momentum. In the GBAO April survey (4/24-28; 800 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), the Congressman topped Lt. Gov. Stratton and Rep. Kelly, but with a 27-18-11% margin, some five points under Krishnamoorthi’s current standing, though his opponents have also gained some support during the interval between polls.

The upcoming 2nd Quarter campaign disclosure reports, which will be made public on or around July 15, will give us further clues as to how this campaign is progressing. At the end of the 1st Quarter, Rep. Krishnamoorthi held a huge campaign resource lead with a cash-on-hand figure of $19.4 million in his congressional account, which is fully transferable to a Senate campaign committee. Rep. Kelly reported $2.0 million in her account, which will have to substantially improve if she is to become a strong contender.

Lt. Gov. Stratton was not a federal candidate at the 1st Quarter filing deadline, so the June 30 numbers will provide a glimpse into her support level. Early rumors suggested that she would receive more than just an endorsement from Gov. Pritzker. Many believe he will fund a Super PAC to assist her in the primary, but such has yet to materialize.

With the competitive Texas Republican Senate primary occurring on March 3 and the Illinois Democratic contest two weeks later, it is clear that these two big state Senate primaries will dominate the early part of the 2026 election cycle. 

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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