The “What Happened In 2024” Report

Catalist data shows Trump’s ability to persuade new voters and Harris' rejection by historically loyal blue voters

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The Catalist research organization released their exhaustive report on the most recent presidential election and provided detailed conclusions about the electorate’s voting behavior.

Some of their conclusions, such as President Trump performing better with minority – particularly young non-White males – non-college and younger voters have already been brought forth through various media reports. Catalist confirms some of those conclusions, but goes much further in explaining how the electorate is performing, which could lead to potential future vote pattern changes.

As the Catalist principals point out, the 2024 election came close to reaching the record 64% eligible voter participation factor marked in 2020. In the battleground states, defined as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the participation rate reached 70% of the eligible population. This means among registered voters in the battleground states, turnout reached or exceeded 80 percent.

While much attention has been given to President Trump’s stronger performance among Blacks, and especially young male Blacks, which is the historical best of any modern day Republican presidential candidate, it is the Hispanic numbers that were particularly noteworthy and may give future Republican candidates in down ballot races a new persuasion universe – assuming they can find the right messaging. 

Catalist claims that since President Obama was first elected in 2008, the size of the Hispanic CVAP (Citizen Voting Age Population) has grown by a factor of 80% to 34.7 million people. The Hispanic portion in relation to the whole voting universe has risen from 7% in 2012 to 10% in 2024. In two battleground states, Arizona and Nevada, Hispanics account for 18 and 17% of the respective state electorates.

The Catalist 2024 report methodology tracked the decline in Democratic performance as opposed to the increase in the Republican support figures. Therefore, among Hispanics nationally, the Democratic support factor dropped from a high of 70% in 2016 (for Hillary Clinton) to just 54% for Kamala Harris. 

Among Latino men, Harris’ support total dropped below the majority mark to 47%. In the battleground states, the Hispanic male Democratic support figure fell to 48% from a high of 62% for President Obama in 2012. 

Comparing Harris’ performance among Hispanic males to President Biden’s total, her number within this same cell group receded a full ten percentage points.

Additionally, the Catalist report finds that the overall race percentages have significantly changed since 2012. 

From the report:

“Over the past several election cycles, Democrats have retained their multiracial coalition while Republicans have significantly diversified their own coalition. In 2012, when former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the GOP [presidential] nominee, roughly one in 10 Republican presidential voters was a person of color; by 2024 that figure rose to 1 in 5 Republican voters.”  

Continuing directly from Catalist, “Latino voters comprised 9% of Trump’s 2024 coalition, up from 5% of Romney 2012 voters. AAPI (American Asian Pacific Islander) voters comprised 4% of Trump 2024 voters, up from 2% of Romney voters. Finally, Black voters comprised 3% of Trump 2024 voters, up from 1% of Romney voters.”

Another curious portion of the report, among many, is that President Trump performed better with his minority coalition in non-battleground states than those widely considered as the most competitive. This suggests that the trend, if it transfers to other future GOP candidates, could potentially become transformational.

A further interesting point was the Catalist report’s study of what was termed “rotating voters.” The project compared individuals who regularly vote with those who pick and choose the elections in which they participate.

Again, from the report:

“In 2012, there were more than 103 million repeat voters (from 2008), and President Obama’s support levels shrank among this group, from 52.4% to 50.9%. At the same time, groups of Democrats rotated in and out of the electorate: 27 million voters dropped off from 2008, who supported Obama at 61%; but they were replaced by 24 million voters who supported him at 58%, still a wide margin. Altogether, this resulted in lower turnout from 2012 overall and a smaller [Obama] margin of victory.”

In 2024, the report indicates that 126 million voters returned from the 2020 election, the highest repeat figure recorded since the Catalist monitoring began. Ms. Harris, however, lost a projected two percentage points from President Biden’s support total within this voter universe. A total of 26 million new voters came into the 2024 electorate, but less than 50% of the group backed the Democratic nominee: hence, one of the key underlying reasons for the final result.

To review the full Catalist report, click here. 

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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