Virginia Primary Today

Two women face off for the state’s top office

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Voters in the Old Dominion go to the polls today, but each party’s gubernatorial primary is already decided.

Both Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger will tonight become the official Republican and Democratic nominees for the open Governor’s race in November. Each is unopposed in their respective primary.

The Earle-Sears/Spanberger general election pairing figures to be close. A new co/efficient research firm poll conducted for the Founders Insight Public Policy Research organization (6/8-10; 1,127 VA likely voters) sees Ms. Spanberger leading Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears by a 46-43% margin. 

This result is consistent with earlier polling. Since the beginning of the year, nine VA gubernatorial polls have been conducted and eight feature a Spanberger lead, with one tie. Excluding the Roanoke College polls (2), which project Earle-Sears to have abnormally low support figures (24 and 26%), the Spanberger mean average edge is just four percentage points. Roanoke College has often produced outlier polls and is not regarded as one of the more reliable survey research resources.

In other contests, Democrats feature a crowded race for Lt. Governor as six candidates are vying for the party nomination, including Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, two state Senators, and a local School Board chairman. The campaign for Attorney General features former state Delegate and 2021 AG candidate Jay Jones and Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor.

For the Republicans, the candidates for Lt. Governor and Attorney General are also unopposed. Radio talk show host John Reid became unopposed when Fairfax County Supervisor Patrick Herrity had to withdraw because of complications from heart surgery. The GOP Attorney General candidate is the incumbent, Jason Miyares.

All 100 state Delegate districts are on the ballot as the Virginia legislative candidates will be competing for a two-year term. State Senators have four-year terms, so the entire 40-member body next comes before the voters in 2027. This means the Democrats’ 21-19 majority will continue into the next legislature. Democrats also have an equally slim majority in the state House, 51-49, thus the majority battle for the next legislature will be a focal point of the coming general election.

Because there is no drama at the top of the ticket for today’s elections, turnout is not expected to be particularly high. It is also difficult to judge the participation rate from a historical context, since both parties simultaneously holding primaries is a rarity in Virginia politics. The Republicans traditionally had opted for a statewide convention to choose their nominees, while Democrats have in more recent times allowed statewide voters to participate in the nomination process. 

In 2021, Republicans held their version of a statewide firehouse primary, which only allows a few voting places within a particular jurisdiction. Republicans also used the Ranked Choice Voting system four years ago, which is not in use for the 2025 primary election.

Moving forward, a part of Virginia will host a federal primary election on June 28. The 11th Congressional District Democratic Committee opted for a firehouse primary election to choose a nominee to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) who passed away in May. Republicans have yet to decide upon their nominee but must have one in place by July 11. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special congressional general election for September 9.  

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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