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SENATE
Alabama
After announcing in early January that he would seek re-election to a second term, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is backtracking and now indicates that he is seriously considering entering his state's open Governor's race. Since the Senate seat is in-cycle, Sen. Tuberville must risk his position should he embark on a gubernatorial campaign. Doing so would likely reduce the number of people running for Governor but yield a large Republican field vying for an open Senate seat.
Louisiana
JMC Analytics this week released a Louisiana Republican primary Senate poll that produced bad news for incumbent Bill Cassidy (R). The Feb. 24-26 survey found State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming leading Sen. Cassidy 29-27% with two minor candidates receiving a combined 8% preference. In a one-on-one test, Mr. Fleming tops the Senator 40-27%.
Previously, Louisiana ran a jungle primary system to determine general election finalists. For the 2026 election and beyond, the state is returning to the partisan primary and runoff system. Therefore, Sen. Cassidy's general election strength apparently is not as relevant in a partisan Republican primary.
Minnesota
Dave Wellstone, son of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone (D), is indicating he may file to compete for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2026. Lieutenant Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the only officially announced candidate to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). Representative Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is a possible contender. Democrats will be favored to hold the seat, but a strong Republican candidate could prove competitive.
New Hampshire
The online news NH Journal recently commissioned a poll from Praecones Analytica and found former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) leading three-term Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen by a stout 54-46% margin. Senator Shaheen, however, would top former Massachusetts Senator and 2020 NH Senate candidate Scott Brown (R) by a similar 55-45% spread. She would also lead Commissioner of Education Frank Edelblut 59-41%.
Perhaps her most serious problem is that 60.4% of the NH respondents said they are very or somewhat concerned about Sen. Shaheen's age. She will be 79 at the time of the next election, and 85 if she were to secure and complete a fourth term.
North Carolina
A new Public Policy Polling survey of North Carolina general election voters sees two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) beginning his re-election effort trailing former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), if the latter man were to challenge him in the 2026 Senate campaign. The ballot test produced a 47-43% lead for Mr. Cooper. The former Governor says he is undecided about whether he will challenge Sen. Tillis.
The Senator's job approval rating is poor, 25:46% favorable to unfavorable. Some of the disapproval comes from Republicans who see Sen. Tillis as straying from President Trump. North Carolina always hosts close statewide races, and the 2026 campaign will apparently again follow the tight election pattern.
Texas
Two-term US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is testing the political waters for his own potential challenge next year of veteran Sen. John Cornyn (R). It has long been presumed that state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is going to oppose Sen. Cornyn, but an entry from a candidate such as Rep. Hunt could drastically change the Republican primary and very possibly force Cornyn into a runoff with either he or Mr. Paxton.
The fractured Republican primary could then pave the way for a truly competitive general election particularly if 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred (D), now a former Congressman, decides to make a comeback.
HOUSE
TX-18
Freshman Texas US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), just hours after attending President Trump's address to Congress, suddenly passed away. Mr. Turner had earlier been diagnosed with bone cancer, but declared himself cancer-free before the 2024 election. Prior to winning the US House seat, Mr. Turner served two four-year terms as mayor of Houston and for 27 years in the Texas House of Representatives.
Governor Greg Abbott (R) will schedule a special election to replace Mr. Turner. Candidates will compete in an initial election. If no one receives majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will advance into a runoff election that the Governor will then schedule.
Representative Turner's predecessor, the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D), won 14 consecutive US House elections until she succumbed to cancer in July of 2024. Therefore, this will be the second time in less than a year that the 18th District will be vacant due to an incumbent's death.
GOVERNOR
Colorado
Three-term US Senator Michael Bennet (D) is reportedly seriously considering running for the open Governor's position in 2026. If he were to enter the contest, Colorado politics would be seriously upended.
The many gubernatorial candidates and potential candidates would be forced to reconsider their chances of winning a statewide primary against their sitting senior Senator. Included as potential gubernatorial candidates are US Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) and Jason Crow (D-Aurora). The only formally announced Democratic gubernatorial candidate is Attorney General Phil Weiser (D) who is ineligible to seek a third term for his current position.
A second Republican also came forward during the week. State Sen. Mark Baisley (R-Salida) indicated that he will run for Governor next year. He would join state Rep. Scott Bottoms (R-Colorado Springs) as candidates vying for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.
Georgia
Four-term US Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) is reportedly making plans to announce her candidacy for Governor. A formal declaration is expected in a matter of weeks. So far, the only person to announce for Governor is Attorney General Chris Carr (R). Governor Brian Kemp (R) is ineligible to seek a third term under Georgia election law.
Illinois
The first Republican gubernatorial candidate made his political plans known during the week. DuPage County Sheriff James Mendrick (R) announced that he will compete in the Governor's race irrespective of whether incumbent J.B. Pritzker (D) decides to run for a third term. Under any circumstance, however, a Republican nominee will be a long shot at best to win an Illinois Governor's race.
Maine
Maine State Representative Laurel Libby (R-Auburn), who has gained notoriety throughout the political world for highlighting that girls' sports should be limited to biological females and as a result was stripped of her floor privileges and voting rights in the state House, says she is considering launching a campaign for Governor.
Considering her newfound name ID throughout the state and becoming a heroine within the Republican base, Ms. Libby becomes a formidable candidate for the statewide party nomination. She would also have the ability of attracting national funding for what could become a competitive general election. Incumbent Gov. Janet Mills, who is fighting President Trump over the same transgender issue, is ineligible to seek a third term next year.
Rhode Island
Governor Dan McKee (D) announced that he will stand for a second full term next year and, like in 2022, his main obstacle to election will be the Democratic primary rather than the general election. Former CVS pharmacies executive Helena Foulkes (D), who lost the 2022 Democratic primary to Mr. McKee by just three percentage points, will return for another attempt. She is also raising money at a brisker pace than the Governor.
Attorney General Peter Neronha (D), ineligible to run for re-election, initially said he was likely to enter the Lt. Governor's race. This week, however, he admits to having second thoughts and may now run for Governor.
At the time of the 2022 Democratic primary, Mr. McKee had ascended to the Governorship from his position as Lt. Governor when the incumbent, Gina Raimondo (D), was appointed US Commerce Secretary for the Biden Administration. The 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary also promises to be highly competitive.
Virginia
Two former state legislators are now looking to enter the 2025 Republican gubernatorial primary. Ex-state Sen. Amanda Chase (R) and ex-Delegate Dave LaRock (R) both say they will challenge Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears for the GOP nomination. The pair, however, may have a difficult time even qualifying for the ballot.
Virginia law requires potential candidates to gather 10,000 valid VA registered voter signatures with at least 400 from each of the state's 11 congressional districts. The candidate filing deadline is April 3, which is a short time frame to complete what most believe is a rather daunting task.
STATE AND LOCAL
Florida AG
A new Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey finds former US Representative and current OAN news anchor Matt Gaetz leading appointed Attorney General James Uthmeier in an early Republican primary survey.
The ballot test finds Mr. Gaetz posting an 18 percentage point lead over the new AG, 39-21%. Mr. Uthmeier has already announced that he will run for a full term in 2026 and is organizing a campaign operation. Mr. Gaetz has not yet committed to entering the race.
A Feb. 24-26 Emerson College survey finds Mayor Michelle Wu (D) leading businessman Josh Kraft (D), son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, with a rather unimpressive 43-29% count for their 2025 mayoral battle. All candidates will be placed on a Sept. 9 ballot regardless of political party. If no one receives majority support, the top two finishers will then advance to a Nov. 4 general election.
New York City
As expected, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) announced this week that he will run for Mayor later this year. Mr. Cuomo has been leading in all publicly released polls, but with a margin suggesting Ranked Choice Voting rounds will be required.
Additionally, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (D) declared that she, too, will join the crowded mayoral Democratic field that includes incumbent Eric Adams. All candidates must officially file by the April 3 deadline for the June 24 Democratic primary.
Pittsburgh
A recently-released mid-February Lake Research Partners Poll found Mayor Ed Gainey (D) trailing his Democratic opponent, Allegheny County Controller Corey O'Connor, by a 47-35% clip. Mayor Gainey also trails in fundraising according to an Axios Pittsburgh article.
Mr. O'Connor, who is also attracting some Republican support, raised $465,000 in January as compared to Mayor Gainey's $24,000 raised. The challenger also has a cash-on-hand advantage of more than $400,000. The Democratic primary, which now promises to be highly competitive, is scheduled for May 20.
St. Louis
The St. Louis mayoral primary was held during the week, and Mayor Tishaura Jones (D) is in serious trouble for re-election. In the city's new "Approval Voting" system, which replaces their Ranked Choice Voting option of 2021, voters have as many votes as there are candidates. Only one vote per candidate may be cast, however.
In the initial result, Cara Spencer, a member of the St. Louis Board of Aldermen, crushed Mayor Jones 68-33%. The other two candidates received the bulk of the approval votes, which led to a cumulative approval vote percentage of 140%. Ms. Spencer and Mayor Jones now advance to the April 8 general municipal election.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Editor's note:
HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.
Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.
We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.
Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.
Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.
Stephen Wynne
Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty
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