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SENATE
Maine: Collins vs. Mills?
Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) did not close the door on a 2026 challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) when asked about the possibility late last week, but other comments and circumstances suggest that she is unlikely to launch such a campaign. In any event, expect the Democrats to field a strong candidate against Sen. Collins, even if they fail to entice Gov. Mills into running.
As an aside, the Governor was actually laudatory in a comment about Sen. Collins becoming the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Mills stated that she is "pleased" Collins will have her new position and termed it as "an asset for the State of Maine." These are not quite the comments one might expect from a future political opponent.
South Carolina: Potential Challenger to Sen. Graham
Palmetto State US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who was re-elected in November to his fifth term in the House, is confirming reports that he is considering both a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham, or entering what will be an open race for Governor. In the latter race, incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third full term.
Both races would be considered uphill. While Rep. Norman is more conservative than Sen. Graham, the latter man has a strong relationship with the President-Elect. Therefore, what normally might be considered a Trump endorsement for Norman may not materialize in this case. For Governor, the potential leading candidate is two-term Attorney General Alan Wilson (R), son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale). Another reported potential gubernatorial candidate is US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).
North Carolina: Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll
The Victory Insights (VI) data organization surveyed the North Carolina electorate about the upcoming 2026 US Senate race, and a Republican primary battle between Sen. Thom Tillis and Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump would break decidedly toward the challenger. In the general election, however, according to the VI data, both Sen. Tillis and Ms. Trump would trail outgoing Governor Roy Cooper (D) by one percentage point.
Victory Insights finds that among an undisclosed sample of Republican primary voters, Ms. Trump, a native of North Carolina, would easily defeat Sen. Tillis in the GOP primary by a whopping 64-11% count. At this point, there is no indication that Ms. Trump would run, but this poll is certainly a warning sign for Sen. Tillis.
GOVERNOR
Tennessee: Rep. Burchett Considering Gubernatorial Race
Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) is another of the state chief executives who is ineligible to seek re-election; therefore, the Volunteer State will also feature an open Governor's campaign. Even before the 2024 election, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) made clear his intention to run for Governor. Now, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) is also confirming that he, too, is considering a run for the state's top job.
We are certain to see crowded open seat gubernatorial primaries – in both parties, around the country – in 2026. It already appears that Tennessee will certainly feature a hot contest to succeed Gov. Lee.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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