Dems Down in All Party Reg States

Republican registration up in 23 of the 31 states

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In 31 states individuals registering to vote do so by listing political party affiliation, and the latest trends suggest significant partisan changes.

The most stunning pattern when comparing the latest registration numbers with those found from Joe Biden’s victorious presidential election in 2020, is that Democratic preference is down in all 31 party registration states. This does not necessarily mean there are less Democratic registered voters in all instances, but their percentage of the entire registered voter universe in each of these states is lower than in 2020. 

In comparison, Republican registration under the same time parameters is up as a percentage to the whole in 23 of the 31 states. The Independent, or Non-affiliated option is up in 18 of the party registration state universes.

Further research would likely lead to the conclusion that Democrats are attracting fewer younger and new voters when compared with past performance. Additionally, the changes in voter registration preferences may be a key reason as to why ballot test polling has been less accurate than in years past. 

Florida is a good example of the polling accuracy factor. In voter registration, we have seen a dramatic shift since 2020. In the Biden year, Democrats had a Florida voter registration edge of 36.3% to the Republicans’ 35.7%. Non-affiliated voter percentage was 26.4, while an additional 1.7% of the registered universe was affiliated with a minor party recognized under the state’s election law. 

Today, according to the latest available figures, 39.6% of Florida’s registered voters are Republicans and 31.3% are Democrats, while Non-affiliateds comprise 26.0% of the registered universe and an additional 3.0% are members of minor parties.

Polling in Florida, according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives, throughout the 2024 cycle projected President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott leading their Democratic opponents by a respective 7 percent average (Trump) and 5 point margin (Scott), yet Trump won by more than 13 percentage points and Scott just under thirteen. One reason for the big polling miss is likely a failure to properly emphasize the large voter registration shift in the Republicans’ favor.

Today, there are a larger number of registered Republicans than Democrats in 12 of the 31 party reg places. The Non-affiliated option is the top registrant in an additional 10 states, while Democrats lead in only nine, which is down three states (Florida, Kentucky and Nevada) from the party’s standing in 2020. 

The Republican majority or plurality states are: Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

The Non-affiliated majorities or pluralities are: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon and Rhode Island.

Democratic Party registration is tops in: California, Delaware, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York and Pennsylvania. Democrats, however, hold an outright majority of registered voters only in Maryland.

The three states with the largest swing since 2020 toward Republicans are Idaho, Wyoming and Iowa. The GOP gained a net 8.4 percentage points in Idaho, 7.4 in Wyoming, and 5 points in Iowa. The party’s biggest drop, however, came in Colorado where the GOP lost 2.7 points. The next highest losses were in Delaware (2.3 net percent) and Nevada (1.6 percent drop).

As mentioned above, Democrats lost affiliation ground in all 31 states. Their three biggest drops, all down between 6 and 7 percentage points, occurred in West Virginia, Nevada and Rhode Island.

The Non-affiliated gains and losses are more erratic. The Independent, Non-affiliated, or Declined to State category saw gains in 18 states but losses in 12 others. Louisiana does not report Non-affiliated numbers. The biggest Non-affiliated gainers were Nevada (up 9.1 net percentage points from 2020), Massachusetts (7.3), Rhode Island (5.8), and Colorado (5.4). The fact that two of the most loyal Democratic states, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, are among the top gainers in Non-affiliated voter registration is another bad sign for the Democrats.

The states with the highest Non-affiliated decline are Alaska (-12.1 net percentage points in comparison with 2020), South Dakota (-9.8) and Idaho (-6.4). 

Total voter registration is up in only 19 of the 31 states, meaning there are fewer registered voters today in 12 of the party registration states than in 2020. 

The downturn is largely due to population loss (Connecticut, Louisiana) or states performing their proscribed registration purge. The latter process eliminates voters who have passed away, moved, or have not voted in a specific number of consecutive general elections as dictated by their individual state laws.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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