Weekly Roundup – June 7, 2025

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SENATE

Alabama

In the first of what is expected to be many such announcements, term-limited Gov. Steve Marshall (R) declared that he will run for the state’s now-open US Senate seat. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) entering the Governor’s race will create a crowded Senate Republican primary. 

The candidate filing deadline will not occur until the first quarter of next year now that the legislature and Governor have changed the state’s primary from an early March time slot to May 12. If no candidate receives majority support in the initial election a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on June 16, 2026.

Iowa 

State Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City), who lost congressional races in 2018 and 2020 before being elected to the state House of Representatives, announced that he will challenge Sen. Joni Ernst (R) next year. Mr. Scholten becomes the first sitting Democratic office holder to enter the Senate race. Chances are good that the 2026 statewide contest will follow a typical Iowa polling trend that will show a relatively close campaign for most of the cycle with Sen. Ernst pulling away in the last two weeks to win a comfortable victory.

HOUSE

AZ-2

Former state Rep. Eric Descheenie becomes the third Democrat to enter the primary campaign with the hope of challenging two-term US Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley).  Already announced for the party nomination are 2024 nominee Jonathan Nez, the ex-Navajo Nation President who held Rep. Crane to a 54-46% victory margin, and retired National Guardsman David Alexander. Though the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 53.3R – 44.4D partisan lean, this general election race could become competitive in 2026.

CO-3 

Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman US Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

CO-8 

Former Colorado US Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) released the results of her 2026 campaign’s internal Public Policy Polling survey (5/19-20; 467 CO-8 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) of what promises to be a crowded Democratic primary battle for the right to challenge freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton). 

According to the ballot test, Ms. Caraveo would attract 36% support compared to state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) and State Treasurer Dave Young’s 8% preference factor.  State Rep. Shannon Bird (D-Westminster) and former teacher’s union president Amie Baca-Oehlert trail at 5 and 4%, respectively. The 8th District is designed to be one of the most politically even districts in the country and so far has performed as intended. Another close finish will be expected in 2026.  

GA-13 

State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran US Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Senator Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 

Saying the 85-year-old longest serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 

State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer.  Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8

Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

VA-11 

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late US Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for September 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention. 

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Senator Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

WA-9 

Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran US Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Ms. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

GOVERNOR

Arizona 

A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (5/23-25; 1,147 AZ likely Republican primary voters; online) finds US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Ms. Robson, 57-25%. 

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (5/12-16; 1,026 AZ registered voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38%, and Ms. Robson by a similar 41-39% count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut 

In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Mr. Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida 

Former US Representative David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column. 

This week, Mr. Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Mr. Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa 

While most political observers are watching whether Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle US Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, State Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine 

A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (5/12-26; 840 ME likely voters; 325 ME likely Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33% preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24%. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20%, while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13% support.  Mr. King is the son of US Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Ms. Pingree is US Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

New York 

Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, as expected, formally launched a Democratic primary challenge against the person who appointed him to his statewide position, Gov. Kathy Hochul. Early polling has found the Governor holding a wide lead over Mr. Delgado and US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx), who is also considering entering the statewide primary race. Together, the two score approximately 25% of the Democratic vote versus Gov. Hochul’s share which approaches about 50%. If Rep. Torres does not enter the race, leaving the anti-Hochul path solely to Delgado, this could become an interesting late June 2026 primary race.

South Carolina 

Democratic state Representative Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor, which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

STATE AND LOCAL

Detroit 

According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (5/27-29; 500 Detroit likely mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Ms. Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8% advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for August 5.

New Orleans 

A JMC Analytics poll (5/27-28; 500 New Orleans likely mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open October 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Ms. Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23%, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on October 11, the top two finishers will advance to a November 15 runoff election.

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Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty