Weekly Roundup – May 17, 2025

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SENATE

Georgia

Soon after Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced that he would not run for the Senate, US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), who pledged to run statewide if Gov. Kemp did not, declared his candidacy for the party’s Senate nomination. Days later, state Insurance Commissioner John King (R) entered the race. Quickly after the Carter declaration, US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) released a written social media statement indicating that she will not enter the Senate campaign.

Despite Ms. Greene’s decision, a crowded Republican field is still expected to develop.  Reps. Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) and Mike Collins (R-Jackson) are considered possible Republican candidates as is state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper. 

The eventual GOP winner will face first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). The party nomination may not be decided until late June of next year, however, if the multi-candidate May Republican primary evolves into a runoff election between the top two finishers should no one secure majority support. 

HOUSE

FL-27

Businessman Richard Lamondin (D) announced his congressional candidacy during the week. He joins former Key Biscayne Mayor and 2024 congressional contender Mike Davey in the Democratic primary. The eventual party nominee will face three-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) who won re-election in November with 60.4% of the vote in a Miami-Dade County 27th District that is becoming more Republican.

IA-3 

US Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) has drawn two early Democratic opponents. State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott (D-Des Moines) announced her congressional challenge and state House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst (D-West Des Moines) quickly followed.

The 3rd District is politically marginal with the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculating a 49.8R – 47.0D partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank IA-3 as the 19th most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference. Last November, Rep. Nunn defeated Democrat Lanon Baccam by a 50-46% margin culminating an expensive campaign where each candidate spent over $5 million.

KY-6 

Former state Representative Cherlynn Stevenson (D), who seems to specialize in close elections, declared her candidacy for Kentucky’s open 6th Congressional District seat during the week. With a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation of 51.8R – 46.1D, this open race will become competitive. A crowded Republican field is expected to form vying to succeed Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) as the party nominee. Mr. Barr is a declared US Senate candidate. In November, Ms. Stevenson was defeated for re-election to the state House by just 125 ballots. Previously, she had won three elections by margins of 37, 48, and 932 votes.

MI-11 

State Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss (D-Bloomfield Hills), as expected, announced that he will enter the newly open 11th Congressional District race. Former Republican Congressman David Trott confirms his interest in possibly entering the 2026 race but says he would do so either as a Democrat or an Independent.

The 11th was redrawn as a heavily Democratic district (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.0D – 39.6R), so the eventual Democratic primary winner will become a clear favorite for the general election. Sen. Moss is the first announced Democratic candidate. A crowded field is expected to form. Incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) is running for the Senate.

NY-17 

Yet another Democrat announced her candidacy to compete for the party nomination to challenge Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River). Tarrytown Treasurer Effie Phillips-Staley officially joined the race, bringing the total to six Democratic candidates. The seat leans to the Democrats, hence the desire to become the party nominee. 

Rep. Lawler is a prospective candidate for Governor, but considering Rep. Elise Stefanik’s likely entrance into the race Rep. Lawler is more than likely to stay put. President Trump just recently sent out a major endorsement of Mr. Lawler for his re-election. Regardless of who each party nominates, this will be a highly competitive national congressional race next year.

Wisconsin 

According to a report in The Down Ballot political blog, two new redistricting lawsuits were filed before the Wisconsin state Supreme Court. The first challenges the state’s congressional district lines as a partisan gerrymander, while the second claims the seats no longer have equal population. The moves had been anticipated since Democrats retained their control over the court. A redraw is likely, and the move could seriously endanger GOP US Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien). The Wisconsin delegation currently stands at 6R-2D.

GOVERNOR

Alabama

Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R), after publicly considering a US Senate bid if incumbent Tommy Tuberville (R) follows through with comments that he will enter the open Governor’s office, confirmed that he will stay in the Governor’s race. Incumbent Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Sen. Tuberville says he will make a formal statement about his 2026 plans before the Memorial Day weekend break. For the Democrats, former US Sen. Doug Jones (D), who Tuberville crushed 60-40% in 2020, confirms he is considering either another bid for the Senate or possibly entering the open Governor’s race.

Florida 

State Senator Jason Pizzo (I-Hollywood), who left his position as Senate Democratic Leader and his party in late April to become an Independent, announced that he will self-finance a 2026 gubernatorial campaign of $25 million and hopes to raise an additional $5 million. With this type of financial backing, Mr. Pizzo could become the de facto Democratic nominee. 

A new poll from the James Madison Institute (5/7; undisclosed number of registered Republican voters), finds that Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis would lead US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) by a 29-28% margin in a hypothetical Republican primary battle for the 2026 GOP gubernatorial nomination. In another testament to President Trump’s strength in GOP primaries, when the respondents are informed that he has endorsed Rep. Donalds, the ballot test turns to 44-25% in the Congressman’s favor. Rep. Donalds is an announced gubernatorial candidate. Ms. DeSantis has not yet declared any political plans.

Iowa

Reports from Hawkeye State indicate that three-term US Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) has filed documents to enter the open 2026 Iowa Governor’s race.  Almost simultaneously, State Auditor Rob Sand announced his intention to compete for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, thus possibly previewing what could become the general election campaign. Also announced are state Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) and former state Rep. Brad Sherman. Potential Democratic candidates include state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City) who lost versus Congressman Feenstra in 2020. 

Three-term state Senator Randy Feenstra came to Congress in 2021, after defeating by ten percentage points then-US Rep. Steve King in the 2020 Republican primary. He would go onto post a 62-38% win against Mr. Scholten in the associated general election. In his two re-election campaigns, Rep. Feenstra has averaged 67.2% of the vote. 

Kansas

Former Gov. Jeff Colyer (R), who was denied winning the 2018 Republican nomination after ascending to the office when then-Gov. Sam Brownback (R) resigned to accept a federal appointment, announced that he will return to again compete for the gubernatorial nomination next year. Mr. Colyer joins Secretary of State Scott Schwab in the Republican primary along with three local officials. For the Democrats, Lt. Gov. David Toland is expected to soon announce his candidacy. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is ineligible to seek a third term.

Massachusetts 

Republicans now have a second gubernatorial candidate to potentially challenge Gov. Maura Healey (D), who is seeking re-election to a second term. Venture capitalist Brian Shortsleeve, and former member of Gov. Charlie Baker’s (R) Administration, announced that he will enter the gubernatorial contest. Earlier, another Baker Administration veteran, Mike Kennealy (R), declared his intention to run. Gov. Healey is favored to win again.

New Jersey 

President Trump issued his “complete and total” endorsement of 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli, as he returns for a second try at winning the New Jersey Governor’s race. A new National Research internal poll (5/6-8; 600 NJ likely Republican primary voters) finds Mr. Ciattarelli leading radio talk show host Bill Spadea 54-23% for the party nomination. Democrats are battling through a crowded field that Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) consistently tops with small percentages. The New Jersey primary is scheduled for June 10 in association with this year’s November 4 election.

Ohio

In another blow to Attorney General Dave Yost’s gubernatorial campaign, the Ohio Republican Party’s State Central Committee members, on a vote of 60-6, officially endorsed businessman Vivek Ramaswamy for the Republican nomination. Mr. Ramaswamy is already running far ahead of Yost in GOP primary polling.

In addition to Mr. Yost, appointed Lt. Gov. Jim Tressel (R), the former Ohio State football coach and ex-President of Youngstown State University, has not yet closed the door on running for Governor. The only officially announced Democratic candidate is former state Health Department Director Amy Acton, though former Congressman and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan is making public statements about entering the Governor’s campaign after ruling out a bid against appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R). Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is term-limited.

STATE AND LOCAL

Detroit

A recently released Target Isyght poll (5/4-7; 400 Detroit likely mayoral election voters) found Detroit City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) leading the crowded field of candidates vying to replace three-term Mayor Mike Duggan. According to the TI results, Ms. Sheffield commands 32% support. In second place is local pastor Solomon Kinloch, Jr. (D) with 25% preference. Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) is third with 19 percent. The Detroit mayoral election features a jungle primary election on August 5.  The top two finishers will advance to a November 4 general election. Mayor Duggan is not seeking re-election. Instead, he is running for Governor as an Independent.

Omaha 

Democrats converted the Mayor’s office during the week as Douglas County Treasurer John Ewing unseated Republican Mayor Jean Stothert by a 56-44% margin. Though this is an impressive win for Mr. Ewing, he still ran behind Kamala Harris’ slightly less than 19 point win within the city limits. The election result again confirms that the Omaha area is becoming a reliable Democratic enclave within a strongly Republican state.

New York City 

While former Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) is under a media attack for potential campaign finance violations and not getting his full complement of public financing money under the city’s election law, he still appears in strong shape for the upcoming Democratic primary. A new Marist College poll shows the recent bad publicity hasn’t hurt his standing with the Democratic electorate. 

The survey results (5/1-8; 3,383 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; live interview; text; email), find Mr. Cuomo maintaining his lead over state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, City Council President Adrienne Adams, and NYC Comptroller Brad Lander by a 44-22-11-10% count. Carried further into a hypothetical fifth round of Ranked Choice Voting, Mr. Cuomo breaks the majority support mark (53%) after winnowing down into a three-person contest. The New York City primary election is June 24.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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